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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (17025)	3/11/2011 10:20:47 AM
From: architect*	2 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 24920

GTE, PMG, CEN, PRE - International mid-cap companies currently producing 15k bopd or more will benefit significantly from oil prices in the $100/bbl range. On 15K bopd the increase from $90/bbl to $100 /bbl equates to an additional $54 MM in annual cash flow. $54 MM is BPZ Resources's entire 2011 Capital Program is $54 MM. For the PMG with 30K bopd + , that's another $100 MM in cash flow. For GTE - on a $90 / bbl price deck is $350 MM / year in OpEx cash flow, and on a $100 price deck - OpEx cash flow is $404 MM, that's a 15% increase in annual cash flow - combine that with say a 15% in annual production grow from 15k bopd to 17k bopd, and that equates to excellent company growth. GTE has allocated $300 MM to their 2011 Capital Program, and that will increase to $380 MM if the PDP acquisition is approved. With oil prices sustained at level higher than $85 - $90 / bbl. GTE's 2012 Captial program could easily be $400 MM, all funded from $400 MM in 2011 OpEx cash flow. I haven't yet, but review Pacific Rubiales's Q4 2010 finances. I'll guess that higher oil prices have improved Pacific Rubiales's balance sheet considerably from Q3 2009. I'm not aware of analyst that have significantly increased their forward 2011 price deck on the international oil mid-cap producers, from their $85 - $90 /bbl range for 2011, used to establish 12 month price targets. One of the pitfalls is calculating forward valuation on prices higher than $85 - $90 / bbl for 2011 exit. In this recent junior oil stock rally, the one thing that kept haunting me was that many of the non-producing stocks were the high flyers. PS> Another two weeks of drilling and Madalena - MVN (MVN.v) will be close to the upper and primary oil pay zone the L Tronosco reservoir, then the Avile reservoir, then the Lower Agrio, and I'm not sure if they'll drill still lower to test the Vaca Muerta. The Vaca Muerta reservoir contained the recent and nearby 4 (multi) Tcf gas discovery by Repsol / YPF. The Vaca Muerta could be a big bonus, not originally, (prior to the 4 T cf discovery) planned by Madalena MVN.