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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Gordon who wrote (2995)	11/14/1997 1:15:00 AM
From: Afaq Sarwar	Respond to of 10479

I have copied the following post by Joe Gladue of The Chapman Company from Osicom folder on AOL for the reading pleasure of the participants of this thread. (Since I am doing this without the permission of the author, I hope that he will not find this objectionable. -------------------------------------------------------- Subject: Re: Backlog? Date: Thu, Nov 13, 1997 11:00 PM EDT From: NLY96 Message-id: <19971114030000.WAA11499@ladder02.news.aol.com> I haven't posted here for a while, but I do want to answer some questions pertaining to me that have been raised over the last several weeks. I do still follow Osicom. I have not dropped coverage. I know that I have told a number of people that I was working on an update that I expected to be printed soon. However, a number of things have prevented me from completing this report and at this point, I will probably wait until after the 3Q earnings announcement to publish a new report. Between now and then, I will probably update my estimates that are published by several of the estimate services (Zacks, IBES, Nelsons). I do expect the 3Q numbers that Osicom has said would be a "substantial" loss will be in the neighborhood of a loss of $(0.20) per share or so. I will also respond to a comment I read about 4Q revenues and sales from other quarters that should have slipped into 4Q. A good portion of OEM sales that were missed in 2Q and 3Q are sales that will not be recovered. When an OEM customer delays the introduction of a new product by three months, that OEM customer loses three months worth of sales on that product. It does not make up for those lost sales over the next quarter. Consequently, the sales that Osicom would have recieved from this customer are also lost. There is no doubling-up of orders in the next quarter or two in this situation. Joe Gladue -------------------------------------------------------- With every thing else being equal, I consider that the expression of his intention to continue to cover Osicom as a positive. The logic being that if he believed that Osicom was a moot point now, he would not bother to continue his coverage. The following post, from AOL also, may provide the context for the comments in the second paragraph of his post. He apparently was responding to the comments in the following post. -------------------------------------------------------- Subject: Re: Backlog? Date: Thu, Nov 13, 1997 8:43 PM EDT From: CYZEN Message-id: <19971114004300.TAA25792@ladder02.news.aol.com> Stockdoc96, I am trying to make sense out of what the company meant by the statement that they have a backlog of 20.6 million. Does it mean that on the day they made the statement they had orders worth $20.6 mil. that will be shipped in the future (may be most or all in the present 4th. quarter). This would mean that the sales for the quarter will be the sum of the following: 1. Shipments made to the date of the statement in current quarter. 2. Most of that backlog amount mentioned ($20.6 mil.) assumimg that most of these orders will be shipped during the current quarter. 3. Any additional orders that will be placed and shipped during this quarter. We only know one of the three figures. However, since this is just the begining of the quarter, assuming that they will receive more orders during the remaining 2 1/2 month, it is very likely that they at least will have over $30 mil. in revenues. If the additional orders for the balance of the quarter have some orders for IQX-200 and GigaMux, I can see record sales. If these sales do include high margin products like IQX-200 and GigaMux, the earnings should also be respectable. Let's assume that that will happen. Will this in itself be enough to move the stock price to respectable levels. I have my doubts. I think that the market would like to see and understand that this is not a one quarter deal. It can be argued that all sales aboove approx. $32 mil. are those from the 2nd. and 3rd. quarter that were shifted into the 4th. quarter. In that case it will show essentially no sales growth and consequaently no market interest. However, if the slaes were high enough in the 4th. quarter to demonstrate that it is not just the sales shifted from the 2nd. and 3rd. quarter, and the company can provide information convincingly suggesting that this is the beginning of a new positive trend, the market and the stock price will follow. I hope it is the second scenario. We will see. cyzen -------------------------------------------------------- Afaq Sarwar