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Japan's Impending Problems after the Earthquake
Created Mar 13 2011 - 12:05
Summary
Japan continues to struggle to contain problems at several nuclear reactors damaged by the March 10 earthquake. There has yet to be a sign of widespread panic in the country, as worldwide aid has poured into the country. However, the nuclear aspect of Japan’s recovery process will have a transformative impact on the country, as well as worldwide ramifications.
Analysis
The situation in Japan remains dire after the 9.0-magnitude Tohoku earthquake on March 10. Prime Minister Naoto Kan has declared the incident the worst disaster since World War II and has called for national unity to survive the crisis and build a “new Japan.” Kan has also raised the size of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces response to 100,000 soldiers, equal to about 40 percent of the active force. The closure of 11 of Japan’s 54 nuclear power plants has resulted in the loss of 15 percent to 20 percent of Japan’s power. Because so many electricity generators are offline, rolling blackouts will be implemented March 14 to ensure electricity supply, which means much of northern Japan, including parts of Tokyo, will accept daily three-hour shifts of power shortage. A large number of industries, including car and auto parts plants, semiconductor fabricators and steel mills, have halted production for unspecified time frames. Disaster relief and humanitarian assistance is under way, with the United States, South Korea, China, and international organizations sending assistance teams and advisers.
There may even be more natural disasters to come. Authorities claim there is a 70 percent chance for a 7.0-magnitude earthquake to strike. There have already been over two hundred aftershocks, several of which registered a magnitude higher than 6.0. Meanwhile, Shinmoedake, a volcano on southern Kyushu Island, has resumed eruptions. The volcano saw major activity in January 2011 for the first time in 50 years (though it saw minor activity as recently as 2008-2009). Some estimates suggest that Japan should expect a quake of one magnitude lower than the original — in other words, an 8.0 quake may still occur. The risk for major subsequent quakes in the coming years is high as well.
STRATFOR continues to monitor the containment of nuclear reactor problems most intensively. Japan claims the incident constitutes a level 4 on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 7-level scale of nuclear events — one level lower than the Three Mile Island incident in the United States, meaning “accident with local consequences” — but this seems optimistic, as many believe the situation is already worse than Three Mile Island.
Right now the most immediate and most likely threat to the containment effort is if the third reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi plant suffers a steam explosion similar to what happened at the plant’s first reactor early March 12. The fuel rods were exposed at the third reactor, as they were at the first reactor, meaning that coolant levels are low and some melting may have taken place. This presents the possibility of buildup of hydrogen and pressure in the outer building and the possibility of a steam explosion.
But a steam explosion at Fukushima’s third reactor is by no means the only threat. First, the cooling systems at reactors 1-3 have all failed, meaning that the decay heat in the reactor core is a problem, and at each of these reactors, emergency teams are allowing controlled releases of radioactive steam to reduce pressure and are pumping in seawater and boric acid to attempt to “kill” the plants. Cooling systems at reactors at other plants also have failed. Nearby Fukushima Daini plant, just to the south, has also experienced cooling failures at the first, second and fourth reactors. A low level emergency has also been declared at the Onagawa nuclear power plant in Ishinomaki city, Miyagi prefecture (the hardest hit prefecture by the tsunami), further north than the Fukushima plants, where radiation was detected, but was later deemed to have drifted there from elsewhere (likely Fukushima Daiichi).
This could pose a radiation threat to the surrounding area, including the 1 million person prefectural capital of Sendai. A cooling pump stopped at Tokai No. 2 nuclear power station in Tokai, Ibaraki prefecture, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. The nuclear safety section of the prefectural government said the other pump is working and that there is no problem with cooling the reactor. All control rods are set in completely at the nuclear reactor, the government said. Japan Atomic Power said the reactor core has been cooled without any problem. This plant is only 120 kilometers (about 75 miles) north of Tokyo, as opposed to the Fukushima plants that are about 260 kilometers north of central Tokyo. A radiation escape from Tokai — of which there is currently no evidence — would heighten the risk that radiation could eventually reach the 30 million-person metropolitan Tokyo area.
From what STRATFOR understands, these are all light water reactors that were automatically shut down when the quake hit, so the heat is “decay heat” rather than primary fission, but heat is still rising because of the lack of cooling. In these types of reactors, as heat rises, they burn less efficiently, so it is generally thought to be unlikely to be a re-emergence of fission reactions or “runaway” chain reaction that would lead to a major explosion. However, the complete failure of cooling and containment efforts could lead to the breach of a primary reactor pressure vessel, greater leakage and possibly even the uncharted “China syndrome” scenario of a molten mass that bores into the ground beneath the reactor. There are simply too many unknowns to make more than educated guesses, and Japanese disaster relief efforts were strained even before they had to cope with the risk of multiple nuclear incidents and accidents.
Sources say the most important thing to watch is increasing radiation levels in the area around the plant. Rising radiation would indicate a much worse situation regarding reactor core stability. The Japanese government claims that the Fukushima Daiichi reactor-1 explosion did not damage the reactor pressure vessel, but the leakage of iodine and cesium had been detected, which could indicate precisely that sort of breach in a worst-case scenario. The government says radiation levels around the Daiichi plant have reached 120.4 millirems per hour, twice as high as allowable levels, and about one sixth of what the average American experiences each year. Reports of radiation exposure vary, but as many as 200 people may have already suffered exposure, and Japan’s NHK television has reiterated that people within the 20 kilometer radius of the plants must evacuate their homes quickly and wear long-sleeved shirts and layers of clothing to prevent skin contact.
Thus at present we should be prepared for a second explosion to occur, this time at the Fukushima Daiichi third reactor. If that occurs, the immediate question is whether it has damaged the reactor core or merely the surrounding confinement structures. Then the question is whether the explosion impacts the containment effort there or in the other troubled reactors. Larger explosions or damages at the Fukushima Daiichi plant could impede containment at other reactors there. The important question is whether the heat, pressure and radiation from the Fukushima Daini, Onagawa and Tokai plants continues to rise or can be contained.
At present, winds continue to blow the radiation toward the sea, but one German news agency report indicates that air pressure levels in the region suggest a possible change in wind direction in coming days, possibly even causing northern winds to put Tokyo at risk, though that has yet to happen.
Finally, there is emerging concern for social stability. Lines have formed and there are fears of impending food, fuel and medicine shortages. There have yet to be signs of a general panic, and considering earthquakes, a tsunami, a possible volcanic eruption and the threat of multiple nuclear meltdowns, the stamina of the Japanese nation is manifest. The crisis is ongoing, there is no immediate end, and the escalating nuclear situation raises extremely difficult challenges for containment teams and is the most important aspect to consider. Already it is clear that this event will have a transformative impact on Japan and will have global ramifications. |
