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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sunny Jim who wrote (7858)	11/14/1997 12:55:00 AM
From: Mark Nelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Nikkei crossed 15000. Down 432.56 points. You'd think our markets might take notice. Maybe (just maybe) people here would start thinking about risk with so many glaring examples of downside around. I still can't believe HK is UP! (+243.69 at midday). What am I missing here? Just a few "gutless shorts" covering their positions? Just goes to prove that sometimes being right isn't enough. Onward.... Mark

To: Sunny Jim who wrote (7858)	11/14/1997 1:24:00 AM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

This has been my Rondo theme, Beaty, When interests rates fall at the same time as Gold prices are falling and stocks are falling in tandem, the market is signaling possible deflation. This is bad because growth goes neg. and people get layed off, (seen the news lately) and earnings plummet at a time when the market is trading at the high end of the 98 projections (historically speaking--on the S&P). So, there is either a temporary flight to quality which is bringing yields down to artificial lows, or there is really a deflationary spiral developing. B,

To: Sunny Jim who wrote (7858)	11/14/1997 9:24:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 18056

Jim, I think lately the strength in the bond market is due to three factors 1) flight to quality from the stocks; 2) bonds could be telling us that there is a slow-down ahead of us; and 3) worse, a steep falling yield could be telling us that there is deflation ahead of us. For stocks, No. 1 is not very alarming; No. 2 is bad; and No. 3 is detrimental! When the yield was over 7%, the concern was inflation. Now if the bonds yields continue to drop so steeply, the concern is deflation. Just my opinions! -Mohan