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To: sylvester80 who wrote (3156)	3/15/2011 3:15:14 PM
From: Doren	Respond to of 3170

First Japan supplies 60% of wafers not NAND. I'm guessing that there are not going to be anywhere near that kind of disruption of NAND manufacturing. I think most of the manufacturing is in the south of the country according to what I've read. According to the article I just posted: For example, Toshiba Corp., the world’s second-largest producer of NAND flash, said shipments of NAND from its central Japan plant could drop by up to 20 percent in (typo I believe they meant from) January and February (levels) So I'm thinking worst case is there might be an initial 20% drop from regular levels. Some plants can probably push up their manufacturing so that the drop in availability would be more like 5 - 10%. My thinking is that most companies need to keep their key clients, especially companies like Apple who invest billions, so I'm thinking Apple will get preferential treatment when it comes to deliveries and at agreed upon prices. Smaller companies will have to fight for what is left over by bidding the prices up. Again according to the iSupply article: While actual shortages haven’t occurred yet, the disaster is already affecting component pricing, due to the psychological impact of the disaster. Pricing for higher-density NAND flash already has climbed by as much as 10 percent on the spot market, which buyers use to procure relatively small quantities of parts It seems obvious the squeeze will affect the smaller companies more than the large. This is a typical "shake out" of the market.