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To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (41783)	3/16/2011 9:10:37 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78576

I disagree. I believe that the risks are known and calculable. I furthermore believe that the risks did not become worse because of the current situation in Japan. It seems that you don't think so. I don't think we can reconcile these two views, so I don't see a point in further discussion. :) BTW, I agree that the safety can be improved in part by not building nuclear reactors in the path of tsunami and not storing spent nuclear fuel on the premises. But safety improvement only reduces the risks and not increases them. ;) If we had to talk about increased risks, corruption and shoddy building in China nuclear plants would be more appropriate topic, though shoddy building affects a lot of industries and could lead to mass deaths in any number of them. Peace. :)

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (41783)	3/16/2011 9:58:28 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78576

re Nuclear energy -first of at, the question for this board is not what is a rational way to pursue (or not) nuclear energy. That decision will be made by voters and politicians in various countries. The relevant question is what is likely going to happen with nuclear energy and how can I profit from it (or at least avoid losses). My thinking is that the buildout of nuclear energy is going to stall in many countries and that this will have a severe effect for the business involved. The other thing is that operating older plants may be more dangerous than assumed. Those plants that failed in Japanese coincidentally or not were older plants. Now most of the operators like EXC and ETR or others really like to operate those older, cheap and depreciated plants because they are so profitable, but I would expect that this operating model will be severely challenged and these plants will be decommissioned sooner now. So EXC and ETR can say goodby sooner rather than later to these immensely profitable cash cows. Also, keep note that these nuclear power generation business fall into the unregulated wholesale business, so there is no support from the taxpayer or customer either (as would be the case if the plant is within the regulated business).