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Technology Stocks : Son of SAN - Storage Networking Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas Nordgren who wrote (104)	11/14/1997 4:25:00 PM
From: Neil S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

Douglas- >>So I believe the more accurate FC market indicator would be an index of FC companies which stand to profit from OEMs etc. with the server/storage/others. The 7 Hi Fibre companies I would consider are: ANCR (Switch), BXH (IPO & Storage), CPCI (Storage), EMLX (Adapters & Hubs), INPH (Adapters), MTIC (Storage), & MYLX (Storage).<< Sounds like we agree, there is no way to judge the incremental impact of FC revenues for the big guys relative to their market valuations- at least at this time.. I see the index as a sort of a proxy for the micro cap/ small cap emerging growth companies that will benefit from FC deployment. We can update the Sector Index as new IPO's happen and other companies increase FC sales. I have been looking for a test to use in determining who to include in a preliminary index, and have reveiwed the compainies you suggested as HI Fibre candidates. I tested for current period revenues as a way to eliminate potential vapor product announcements, and to try to get some potential correlation in the group. Nothing fantastic, but this is what i found ( or guessed at). Recent Quarter Results Company Quarter Revenue Est % FC Net FC Rev ANCR 9/97 3424 100% 3424 A (Pure Play, all revenue now derived from FC) BXH 9/97 18100 5% 905 E (Introduced Fibre Box FC storage system during quarter) CPCI 9/97 8668 25% 2167 E (Solid growth from industrys first FC Raid product) EMLX 9/97 15007 33% 4952 A (FC rev more than 1/3 total, FC now drives results) INPH 9/97 13611 5% 681 A (Storage prod rev is SCSI and FC. Also LAN, WAN products.) MYLX 9/97 29400 0% 0 E (First product FC RAID to SCSI controller avaliable Q1 98). MTIC 10/97 4100 0% 0 E (First FC prod introduced oct 97)). A = Actual % FC Rev from Company, 10Q, or PR Release. E = Guess based on comments from company, prod intro date, etc. The above would indicate: ANCR, BXH, CPCI, EMLX, INPH Let me know what you think, suggestions appreciated. The software i am using is AIQ Trading Expert. As for "shoot the messenger", that's why we should call it the Nordgren Fibre Channel Emerging Growth Index <g>. Regards, Neil