Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (41800)	8/16/2011 12:52:04 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78521

Re: Gerdau S.A. Common Stock(NYSE: GGB) - initiate a new tracking position VALE S.A. American Depositary (NYSE: VALE) - Sold off higher priced shares will buy back in 31 days Ultrapetrol (Bahamas) Limited (NasdaqGS: ULTR) - Sold off higher priced shares will buy back in 31 days finance.yahoo.com I am cleaning up several of my Brazil holdings, harvesting some losses and re-establishing a tracking position in GGB. I sold my last lot of GGB in 3/2011 for $13.32 and after a 62% price cut, I started a new tracking position at $8.20/share today. GGB seems like it is available at a good "value" entry point at current prices. I am going to put GGB in my AG basket as they machine wire and products for farming that include products such as poles, smooth wire and barbed wire. Gerdau also produces specialty steel for the manufacture of tools and machinery that are used in the growing Brazil AG sector. Analysts calculate their Forward PE at 3.95. The company currently pays close to a 2% dividend. Their LT debt to annual net income ratio of 7x is not too bad for such a large capital intensive business. Growth from the 2016 Brazil Olympics and the build out of the Brazil offshore drilling rigs/infrastructure should also support demand for their steel products. Partial sales in both VALE and ULTR will allow me to harvest some losses and reduce my cost basis. I may have the opportunity to buy back these shares in 31 days at lower prices. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (41800)	1/6/2015 2:40:33 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By Mattyice Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78521

GGB coming back on my value list. Do not like Brazil but looking back from my Buys at $3.50 in 2005 and subsequent sales in 2009 at $9.54/share, $3.50/share is again looking attractive. It seems like the cycle bottom could/may be in but who knows. GGB is the world's low cost producer and a lot of steel pipe is/was manufactured and sent to the U.S.. Maybe less demand w/ oil prices down but China is the real wild card. I do not expect the EU to be using too much steel either. So my value premise is based on BV selling at 0.5x BV (BV is $ 7.10/share). Debt still quite large at $7Bln almost 14x their current net income. Also, that debt may be paid back in $US and the currency exchange rate is not to their advantage either. My last hold was 4 years for a double in value and peak cycle, so maybe 2015 is the bottom of the cycle. No buys yet, but on my watch list for a possible start of a new long term position. Any thoughts? EKS