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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (51476)	3/16/2011 5:21:02 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

<I can not short - makes me way too nervous> Makes me nervous too. All my conclusions are tentative. As I've posted before, my KLIC short is a small fraction of my portfolio, and I am still net long the market. This is a hedge for market risk, a way to reduce overall risk. My long positions are in energy and drugs. My largest position by far is cash. <What if they get the pumps going tonight with that power line.> That would be a step, one single step, towards getting control. Unfortunately, with each passing day, the amount of released radiation makes it steadily harder to do anything anywhere near the reactors and spent fuel pools. With each passing day, there is more damage to all the containment structures, and more melting of spent fuel and reactor cores. And, although it is off the front pages, the Middle East revolutions and Europe debt crisis haven't gone away. The Saudi army is killing protesters in Bahrain, the civil war in Libya is ongoing, Europe's hi-debt nations continue to see credit ratings cut and interest rates rise. You are right, that buyers can find alternative sources, for electronics components and most other items. But this takes time and money. In the meantime, shortages develop, production lines get shut down, and sales are lost.

To: robert b furman who wrote (51476)	3/16/2011 6:51:24 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95383

I have nothing against shorting. I have done it many times in the past. I will say that one needs to be much more nimble shorting than buying long. After all you actually own nothing but a borrowed stock, sold short, loaned to you, on margin from a brokerage that can and will change their margin loan rules arbitrarily. I know this because it has happened to me. Being long I am more concerned about oil over $100.00 than the Japanese problems being long now. Let me share a couple of charts on oil and remind everyone that this recent selling began before the earthquake in Japan: Longer term chart on oil versus the S&P 500. Note that when the price of oil runs over $100.00 that the market has sold off in the past as well as now: As it concerns the SOX and semiconductor related stocks look for a rebound soon in the market even if oil prices don't take off back above $100.00 per barrel. Why because virtually every chart of a major market index will bounce once an RSI of 30 is reached on a six month daily chart unless we are in a bear market: I look for a bounce very soon in the market overall. How sustainable will it be? Oil prices and the price of gasoline itself will make all the difference: One of the gals who works for me has forced her son to take the bus to school due to the high cost of gas. My brother in law is not going to take a vacation in their motor home because of the same thing. The high cost of gasoline can and will kill this market rally if it stays above $100.00 a barrel for any real length of time. RtS