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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (147798)3/20/2011 3:25:40 PM
From: ChanceIs  Respond to of 206334
 
>>>will be caused by a series of unanticipated events<<<

I attended a risk management conference a while ago. I chatted with a colleague I know somewhat. He was against building to "9 nines" reliability/disaster prevention. Said that it is good to have just a "little breakdown" every now and then. That way it keeps you alert and you learn your system better. I understood his point, but have trouble accepting it.

I will say that the nuclear industry I know is way into psychological terrorism. In the regulated rate base days they would frighten the regulators into 20 backup systems when three would suffice. After all, it just got added to the customers' bills. It did not hurt profits but rather raised them because its all "cost plus."

Your arguments about licenses are sound. It's real hard to predict. For sure natty is the safest bet for immediate new capacity.



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (147798)3/20/2011 8:57:42 PM
From: teevee2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206334
 
The next nuclear disaster is likely to be in China, or maybe India

I can confidently predict a 100% certainty of that. For example, many hi rise towers built in North America over the last 4 years have to be completely re plumbed because contractors couldn't resist bargain priced PVC pipe bought from China that has failed within 12-24 months(a good news story for plumbers and copper pipe and tubing manufacturers).. I know of many companies that specify "no steel from China or India" in their orders because of quality control issues. If ANY pipe or plumbing in Chinese or Indian reactors have utilized Chinese or Indian made materials, they are 100% certain to fail within the first 4 years. With about 90 reactors being built in India and China combined, it means a constant stream of black swan events for a decade or more. Welcome to the future.