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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (147986)	3/23/2011 6:41:30 AM
From: ChanceIs	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206193

RE: Federal Deficit See the tables below taken from Charles Hugh Smith: oftwominds.com Archie is making the case that the deficit starting shrinking per in late '09 per TREASURY data. Smith is using OMB data. They don't agree. I read a while ago - couldn't find reference - that the count of months of consecutive deficit hit a new record. While the federal government has run an ANNUAL deficit back to 1957, there are usually some MONTHS with surpluses. These months would typically be January and April when large quarterly payments come in. I remain skeptical that the deficits are shrinking (pre Libya). I would agree that the best way to address the situation is to grow out. However we haven't had a surplus since 1957. The argument that deficit growth relative to GDP growth has some merit, although I think it tenuous. The real fun and games start when Bernanke can no longer hold down interest rates. _________________________________________ Let's compare Federal spending in 2004, 2007 and 2010. Remarkably, the Federal government spends $1 trillion more a year now than it did a mere three years ago and $1.5 trillion more than it did a brief six years ago. Here are the numbers from the Office of Management and Budget website: whitehouse.gov revenues 2004 $1.88 trillion 2007 $2.56 trillion 2010 $2.16 trillion spending 2004 $2.29 trillion 2007 $2.72 trillion 2010 $3.72 trillion deficit 2004 –$412 billion 2007 –$160 billion 2010 –$1.3 trillion In three years, Federal spending jumped almost exactly $1 trillion, or 36.7%. Here are the deficits of the past three years, and the estimated shortfalls for fiscal years 2011 and 2012: 2008: $458 billion 2009: $1.4 trillion 2010: $1.3 trillion 2011: $1.5 trillion (est.) 2012: $1.6 trillion (est.) (CBO estimate for 2011) total: $6.258 trillion in five years.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (147986)	3/23/2011 8:47:02 AM
From: carranza2	20 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206193

Please give my your vision of how this ends? Badly. There is no longer any sense of political community in this country, only a set of competing interest groups out to maximize their well-being at the cost of everyone else's. Add a political class whose main interests lie in campaign contributions and re-election, and the common interest simply does not stand a chance. It's every man for himself now. I can deal with that, but I don't like it.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (147986)	3/23/2011 3:12:56 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	4 Recommendations Respond to of 206193

<your vision of how this ends?> Very badly. 1. We continue printing money to solve all problems, doing Creative Accounting, living beyond our means, neglecting long-term problems, making plans that require Heroic Assumptions to succeed, until: 2. The bond vigilantes start questioning whether Federal and State debts (including promised pensions, Social Security, veteran's health care, etc.) can be paid. 3. Interest rates spike. 4. Foreigners start dumping Treasuries and muni bonds, creating a downward spiral of higher interest rates and lower credit ratings. 5. There is a de facto default, either by inflation or "restructuring". 6. The dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency. 7. The center of global finance, which shifted from London to New York during WW1, now shifts to Shanghai. 8. There is a steadily sharpening class war in the U.S. The rich withdraw to their gated communities, protected by private police, send their kids to private schools, and effectively secede from the rest of the country. Their only interests are protecting their money, and lowering their taxes. A huge mass of alienated formerly-middle-class people also lose any sense of patriotism. Radical political solutions, of the Left and Right, become popular. 9. Bankruptcy forces huge cuts in military spending, so the U.S. loses the capability of being the world's policeman (just like the British Empire after WW2; many parallels here). A list of nations which had peacefully sheltered under U.S. protection since WW2, now acquire nuclear weapons (Japan, Germany, Taiwan, Australia, Brazil, others). 10. These nations engage in a Darwinian brawl, for scarce resources (water, food, oil, a list of others).