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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (72297)	3/23/2011 8:30:55 AM
From: Chas.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217783

Geometric growth rate will be the downfall of the Planet and Civilization as we know it today.... The Planet simply cannot sustain in excess of 20 Billion people... the natural resources of Oil, Fresh water, Foods, ie Wheat, Grains, Beef, etc, etc will not be able to keep up... China & India and maybe Africa lead the way in providing Geometric Growth rates and not much end in sight... way beyond 7-15 years tho.... Economic downfall maybe..... Chas

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (72297)	3/24/2011 9:25:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217783

Just in in-tray, per greed n fear · The Libyan intervention is a bizarre sideshow and the real flashpoint for the oil price, if there is one, will prove to be the Saudi-Bahrain-Kuwait nexus. The verbal gymnastics employed by Western politicians to justify why they are sending cruise missiles into Libya but not other Arab countries where ordinary citizens are also being “slaughtered”, fail to impress. · With the anti-Khadafy forces both seemingly ineffective and fundamentally tribal in nature, save doubtless for the odd Jihadist, the issue may well soon become whether this will remain just a “no-fly zone” exercise or evolves in due course into a ground operation. · The likely “endgame” of the continuing practice in the developed world of “dealing with” private sector debt busts by the easy option of indulging in ever larger taxpayer funded bailouts is clearly a crisis of public sector debt which in the case of Washington would mean a collapse of the US dollar paper standard and a fundamental questioning of the post-Keynesian orthodoxy. · The willingness of the policy establishment to indulge in yet more bailouts has only served to ensure that the financial consequences of the catastrophic debt build up will be even greater. In this respect, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King continues almost single-handedly amongst the Western policy establishment to argue for a Glass Steagall-like separation of investment banking and commercial banking. · The timing of the “endgame” on US sovereign debt remains unknowable. But for now at least GREED & fear continues to assume that movements in the Treasury bond market continue to be driven primarily by views on the economy rather than by supply concerns. · There remains scant evidence that releveraging is working in America in terms of the credit multiplier. The willingness of US banks to buy bonds rather than lend is because of the risk adjusted profits they can make playing a steep yield curve. This is also why it will probably take longer for the US fiscal situation to blow up than what many of the bond bears expect. · The Treasury bond market can rally further if QE2 has “failed”. Still for now at least such a perception of policy failure is not priced into the markets. Ben Bernanke will use any opportunity provided by the data or market action to justify a continuation or expansion of QE. He is as aware as anyone of the lack of evidence that the credit multiplier is really working. · GREED & fear will stick with the constructive view of Japanese equities and would certainly favour Japanese equities over other developed world equities since the main risk to the Japanese stock market is renewed questioning of the current consensus on cyclical recovery in the US. · If US growth does disappoint, which also means continuing zero rates and “QE3” sooner rather than later, then hopes for a decisively weaker yen exchange are likely to be disappointed yet again. The yen remains 32% below its 1995 peak in real terms based on the real effective exchange rate. · The Japanese government is planning to promote private sector investment, via concessions, in currently pubic sector-owned and managed infrastructure. Such an approach would mark a truly radical change for Japan where, traditionally, transferring operating rights to infrastructure of a highly public nature has essentially been banned. It would also amount to a huge growth catalyst for the private sector, a well as bringing much needed fiscal relief. · The question now is whether the proposed law will pass through the Diet in the wake of the natural disaster. Hopefully, the quake will serve as a catalyst to fast forward such an approach. But clearly there is a risk that the national emergency distracts attention from this much needed reform. The relevant bill was approved by the cabinet in the morning of the day the quake struck. Please consider the environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.