just cleared from e-mail tray
From: W
Sent: Sat, March 26, 2011 12:38:52 PM
Subject: RE: Why America Will Stay on Top
Well,I read the piece and the author is either delusional or senile. Or both.
b
From: J
Sent: Saturday, March 26, 2011 4:28 AM
Subject: Re: Why America Will Stay on Top
oh, b, you know, it speaks the english language like india
it rules by making up so many laws like japan
it is flexibly inflexible like russia
everyone gets to vote on who to steal from next like in greece
anyone can say any silly thing like italy
leaders are not selected on merit, but on idol tv like in the philippines
it lives off of an unleveled usd global reserve currency playing field as do the saudi arabians off of oil
or some such schema
and there is always the exceptionalism because the founding fathers wrote a piece of paper that no one can seriously recognize any more
did i miss something?
another thought, more cogent, that gold is the marker for the coming fall of team usa and the unavoidable fall and/or rise of any replacement leading state
that is why it is so difficult at this stage of the game to show a portfolio gain relative to base currency gold
except wong chuk hang industrial real estate - latest chinese language press reports on coming and dramatic make-over of the area, and current transaction value at a still low low low of hkd 4k psf, though substantially higher than the sungib industrial building unit mac kindly helped my gold bunker club to buy at 1.8k psf in mid 2009.
watch gold, for it tells the truth.
From: W
Sent: Sat, March 26, 2011 12:17:47 PM
Subject: RE: Why America Will Stay on Top
Why America will stay on top....of what?
b
From: J
Sent: Saturday, March 26, 2011 4:11 AM
b, you must stop reading wsj and any media aligned with same wsj, them being nyt, iht, wp, economist, times, ...
you must know that founding father jefferson laid down the prerequisite conditions for the fall of any, all and the repulic, and the confluence of the specified conditions are coming together
as gloomy as i may sound on usa, i have no particular desire for its downfall, for it would lead to much of no-good all around for a whole lot of time, i.e. the darkest of interregnum, given that there is always a gap between the fall of one and the rise of another, and at this stage, frankly, the candiates for rise are not all that attractive and i am the first readying to run, in the away direction - the family over time has proven to be good at running, for running is good, and fight-to-the-death is for cretins
between you and i, you are the one invested in derived china equities, and i am the one hedged against china's fall
america's downfall presupposes the destruction of its middle class, and should you have any doubt that the american middle class is being systematically destroyed and methodically neutered, you shouldn't
and, actually, it is the middle class, by exercise of universal suffrage and all voting either for lowest common denominator or supporting second lowest common denominator, that is destroying their own members, by stealing, pilfering, entitling, and otherwise machinating the convoluted welfare republic past its best use-by date
iow, america's very supposed strength is its fatal weakness, and there is nothing more dangerous than an auto-immune disease where one's own defense is the offense
folks also spend time pondering the "coming collapse" of china, but give no critically important credit for the truth that china has completely collapsed, and has been in a bottoming process for the last few hundred plus 200 years; its very recent recovery so far is a mere bounce at the very bottom of the pit, but for the will of the civilization state, china would be on the same page as carthage
do pull back, see the fractal patterns of true history, where inexorable rise is always and without exception tee-ed with inevitable fall, and appreciate the significance of ohwhoawee and impute the geewhizbang
we must confront the fractal patterns without resorting to common exceptionalism, refrain from claiming the usual democracy this, shy away from the always flexible that, and ignore anything remotely to do with by the people for the same people anything else, and full stop on any of the supposed freedoms
fiat money france had freedoms, and a printed money experiment, and went into revolution without passing go
britain's hard fall was cushioned so far and greatly by the colonies, and its harder fall is still ahead of us
further, the people and system of america today has naught to do with those of 1776, and anyone who think otherwise does not know america
as to historians, i favor chalmer johnson google.com
niall ferguson google.com and
martin jacques google.com
and for the article referenced below to mention america in the same passages as shrimp states iraq, afghanistan and libya is simply unbecoming of a great state, for great states do not deal with shrimps, but continents and unexplored great big places
cheers, j
From: B
Sent: Fri, March 25, 2011 12:17:48 PM
Subject: Why America Will Stay on Top
And Socrates too, Charles… sorry Jay, you won’t agree with this following positive outlook on US…
Why America Will Stay on Top
Eminent historian Paul Johnson on Sarah Palin, the tea party, and 'baddies' from Napoleon to Gadhafi..
By BRIAN M. CARNEY
London
In his best-selling history of the 20th century, "Modern Times," British historian Paul Johnson describes "a significant turning-point in American history: the first time the Great Republic, the richest nation on earth, came up against the limits of its financial resources." Until the 1960s, he writes in a chapter titled "America's Suicide Attempt," "public finance was run in all essentials on conventional lines"—that is to say, with budgets more or less in balance outside of exceptional circumstances.
"The big change in principle came under Kennedy," Mr. Johnson writes. "In the autumn of 1962 the Administration committed itself to a new and radical principle of creating budgetary deficits even when there was no economic emergency." Removing this constraint on government spending allowed Kennedy to introduce "a new concept of 'big government': the 'problem-eliminator.' Every area of human misery could be classified as a 'problem'; then the Federal government could be armed to 'eliminate' it."
Twenty-eight years after "Modern Times" first appeared, Mr. Johnson is perhaps the most eminent living British historian, and big government as problem-eliminator is back with a vengeance—along with trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. I visited the 82-year-old Mr. Johnson in his West London home this week to ask him whether America has once again set off down the path to self-destruction. Is he worried about America's future?
"Of course I worry about America," he says. "The whole world depends on America ultimately, particularly Britain. And also, I love America—a marvelous country. But in a sense I don't worry about America because I think America has such huge strengths—particularly its freedom of thought and expression—that it's going to survive as a top nation for the foreseeable future. And therefore take care of the world."
Chris Serra
.Pessimists, he points out, have been predicting America's decline "since the 18th century." But whenever things are looking bad, America "suddenly produces these wonderful things—like the tea party movement. That's cheered me up no end. Because it's done more for women in politics than anything else—all the feminists? Nuts! It's brought a lot of very clever and quite young women into mainstream politics and got them elected. A very good little movement, that. I like it." Then he deepens his voice for effect and adds: "And I like that lady—Sarah Palin. She's great. I like the cut of her jib."
The former governor of Alaska, he says, "is in the good tradition of America, which this awful political correctness business goes against." Plus: "She's got courage. That's very important in politics. You can have all the right ideas and the ability to express them. But if you haven't got guts, if you haven't got courage the way Margaret Thatcher had courage—and [Ronald] Reagan, come to think of it. Your last president had courage too—if you haven't got courage, all the other virtues are no good at all. It's the central virtue."
Mr. Johnson, decked out in a tweed jacket, green cardigan and velvet house slippers, speaks in full and lengthy paragraphs that manage to be at once well-formed and sprinkled with a healthy dose of free association. He has a full shock of white hair and a quick smile. He has, he allows, gone a bit deaf, but his mind remains sharp and he continues to write prolifically. His main concession to age, he says, is "I don't write huge books any more. I used to write 1,000 printed pages, but now I write short books. I did one on Napoleon, 50,000 words—enjoyed doing that. He was a baddie. I did one on Churchill, which was a bestseller in New York, I'm glad to say. 50,000 words. He was a goodie." He's also written short forthcoming biographies of Socrates (another "goodie") and Charles Darwin (an "interesting figure").
Mr. Johnson says he doesn't follow politics closely anymore, but he quickly warms to the subject of the Middle East. The rash of uprisings across the Arab world right now is "a very interesting phenomenon," he says.
"It's something that we knew all about in Europe in the 19th century. First of all we had the French Revolution and its repercussions in places like Germany and so on. Then, much like this current phenomenon, in 1830 we had a series of revolutions in Europe which worked like a chain reaction. And then in 1848, on a much bigger scale—that was known as the year of revolutions."
In 1848, he explains, "Practically every country in Europe, except England of course . . . had a revolution and overthrew the government, at any rate for a time. So that is something which historically is well-attested and the same thing has happened here in the Middle East."
Here he injects a note of caution: "But I notice it's much more likely that a so-called dictatorship will be overthrown if it's not a real dictatorship. The one in Tunisia wasn't very much. Mubarak didn't run a real dictatorship [in Egypt]. Real dictatorships in that part of the world," such as Libya, are a different story.
As for Moammar Gadhafi, "We'll see if he goes or not. I think he's a real baddie, so we hope he will." The Syrian regime, he adds, "not so long ago in Hama . . . killed 33,000 people because they rose up." Then, "above all," there is Iran. "If we can get rid of that horrible regime in Iran," he says, "that will be a major triumph for the world."
Frank judgments like these are a hallmark of Mr. Johnson's work, delivered with almost child-like glee. Of Mahatma Gandhi, he wrote in "Modern Times": "About the Gandhi phenomenon there was always a strong aroma of twentieth-century humbug."
Socrates is much more to Mr. Johnson's liking. Whereas, in Mr. Johnson's telling, Gandhi led hundreds of thousands to death by stirring up civil unrest in India, all the while maintaining a pretense of nonviolence, Socrates "thought people mattered more than ideas. . . . He loved people, and his ideas came from people, and he thought ideas existed for the benefit of people," not the other way around.
In the popular imagination, Socrates may be the first deep thinker in Western civilization, but in Mr. Johnson's view he was also an anti-intellectual. Which is what makes him one of the good guys. "One of the categories of people I don't like much are intellectuals," Mr. Johnson says. "People say, 'Oh, you're an intellectual,' and I say, 'No!' What is an intellectual? An intellectual is somebody who thinks ideas are more important than people."
And indeed, Mr. Johnson's work and thought are characterized by concern for the human qualities of people. Cicero, he tells me, was not a man "one would have liked to have been friends with." But even so the Roman statesman is "often very well worth reading."
His concern with the human dimension of history is reflected as well in his attitude toward humor, the subject of another recent book, "Humorists." "The older I get," he tells me, "the more important I think it is to stress jokes." Which is another reason he loves America. "One of the great contributions that America has made to civilization," he deadpans, "is the one-liner." The one-liner, he says, was "invented, or at any rate brought to the forefront, by Benjamin Franklin." Mark Twain's were the "greatest of all."
And then there was Ronald Reagan. "Mr. Reagan had thousands of one-liners." Here a grin spreads across Mr. Johnson's face: "That's what made him a great president."
Jokes, he argues, were a vital communication tool for President Reagan "because he could illustrate points with them." Mr. Johnson adopts a remarkable vocal impression of America's 40th president and delivers an example: "You know, he said, 'I'm not too worried about the deficit. It's big enough to take care of itself.'" Recovering from his own laughter, he adds: "Of course, that's an excellent one-liner, but it's also a perfectly valid economic point." Then his expression grows serious again and he concludes: "You don't get that from Obama. He talks in paragraphs."
Mr. Johnson has written about the famous and notorious around the world and across centuries, but he's not above telling of his personal encounters with history. He is, he says, "one of a dwindling band of people who actually met" Winston Churchill.
"In 1946," he tells me, "he came up to my hometown because he was speaking at the Conservative Party conference up the road. And I managed to get in just as he was about to leave to make his speech. And I was 16. He seemed friendly, so I was inspired to say, 'Mr. Winston Churchill, sir, to what do you attribute your success in life?' And he said without any hesitation"—here Mr. Johnson drops his voice and puts on a passable Churchill impression—"'Conservation of energy. Never stand up when you can sit down. And never sit down when you can lie down,'" he relates with a laugh. "And I've never forgotten this," he says, "because as a matter of fact, it's perfectly good advice."
Here he adds the kicker: "Interestingly enough, Theodore Roosevelt, who had a lot in common with Winston Churchill in many ways, but was quite a bit older, said of him, 'Oh, that Winston Churchill, he is not a gentleman. He doesn't get to his feet when a lady enters the room.'"
Mr. Carney is editorial page editor of The Wall Street Journal Europe and the co-author of "Freedom, Inc." (Crown Business, 2009).
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A13
Copyright 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
From: C
Sent: Friday, March 25, 2011 12:00 PM
Subject: RE: Hong Kong Property: The Beginning Of The End
As a teenager reading Nietzsche I thought it was a cool concept. But I think now his thinking was more colorful nonsense. There are some good ideas. But reading the stuff is painful. Given me Buddha or Aristotle first. Heavy reading but more grounded.
From: B
Sent: Friday, March 25, 2011 10:33 AM
Subject: RE: Hong Kong Property: The Beginning Of The End
J, I KNOW not this guy’s track record, only that he writes coherently and concisely. He is quite bearish on China.
Also sprach Analyst, inspired by Friedrich Nietzsche's Also sprach Zarathustra and the symphonic poem of the same name by Richard Strauss, is a website on Investment, Finance & Economics, maintained by Zarathustra W., who has worked as an equity research analyst in Hong Kong, focusing on Hong Kong/China property market, with strong interest in global finance and economics. He writes extensively on various topics within the big area of Investment, finance and economics, and tries to make Hong Kong and China relevant to western readers. To read more about the website, please take a quick tour of the best articles on global finance and economics.
Below you can find the collections of the best articles ever written in this website, grouped by topics.
Global Economy
This website, first and foremost, is about Global Finance and Economics from a somehow peculiar vantage point as a “Hongkonger”. This page lists out some of the best articles on global economy and finance on this website ever written. Here you will find articles mostly concerned with the developed economies, as you will find another [...]
China Economy
Why China? As China emerged as the second largest economy in the world, I bet you will not want to be completely ignorant about China Economy. Being based in Hong Kong and close to China, I bring to you a unique angle as a half-insider and half-outsider to look at the booming Chinese economy. Here alsosprachanalyst.com
10 Reasons To Short China
As China’s economy is getting more, rather than less, unbalanced and growth becoming more, rather than less, unsustainable, the question of burst of the China bubble now boils down to the question of when it will burst, rather than the question of whether there is a bubble. Here are 10 big reasons why you should turn bearish on China.
Hong Kong Economy
This is a collection of the best articles on this website related to Hong Kong Economy, Real Estate, Politics
From: J
Sent: Friday, March 25, 2011 7:21 AM
Subject: Re: Hong Kong Property: The Beginning Of The End
B, please excuse me in late response to your referenced Zarathustra piece. I was lost for words, momentarily, I found the words while traveling back to hong kong, and now I am proceeding home to give baby Jack a play and kid Erita a hug.
I do not know who Zarathustra is. If you know him, tell him for his sake that he must change his faithless ways, get a real clue about the true nature of the game he is awfully forced to play, where all cannot quit, none knows the rules, most cannot win, many cannot keep winnings, and almost all must fall so that a few may rise.
Let me paraphrase Zarathustra to make sure I understood his hilarious points, and they be
"hong kong real estate shall fall because
(1) hong kong banks increased and shall continue to increase outrageously negative real rate mortgage by a sliver, to merely deeply negative real rate, (edit: giving savers a choice to throw their fiat dollar excess to ... What? And giving investors an opportunity to trash their paper money surplus to ... What? Ideas please for the lot who were so recently taught by lehman brothers and the god's workers in other shops).
(2) China engineered a beneficial slowdown in otherwise also beneficial inflation and may not be able to machinate a timely upturn to safeguard stability, continued growth, and energize reform, and would instead strangle all goodness by keeping boot on break ... Because of what? Lack of paper money?
(3) USA might commit financial suicide by allowing short rate to rise on cost-free paper money because the fed fails in its mission to maintain price stability and try to encourage job creation (edit: even if only in the government sector), and
(4) as hong kong real estate rose plenty in past two years and is due a breather, (edit: perhaps fall to level of four weeks ago, say down x%?)"
My tummy hurts from mirth and throat pains from laughter, eyes tear up, and arms flap. Give me a to-be-thanked-for break.
Assuming the above paraphrase is reflective of what Zarathustra figured, does his utterance pass the hong kong laugh test? How many times could Zarathustra have uttered the same over the past 10, 100, 1,000, or 2,000 weeks? What difference can any up-to-18-months and very temporary dip make, except to make it easy for the slow, steady, inexorable, and tenacious long term buy-n-holders to accumulate on wobbles.
Simply put, we cannot and must not live our lives in a way to habitually wait for the HK real estate crash that may or may not offer up a bargain in precisely what we want, because way too many folks want the same properties and are always watchful.
We must lead our lives keeping long that which has worked, for all the good reasons in an otherwise foolishly troubled world, and be customarily adding to the long. Most HK real estate in hands of existing owners would not come up for sale; that is simple demand.
Given above stipulation, and given the weight of new and repeat buyers (i.e. more complicated demand), the pool of wannabe buyers (i.e. think Vancouver), and the truth that fate of hong kong real estate is directly linked to the dynamism of the rising kingdom and actually channeling the energy of the dying empire, why should hong kong real estate fall?
Because USA short rate rising and cratering the empire ahead of the gentle decline of the welfare state? Or because USA short rate stays down in keeping with terribly habitual fiat money inflation discipline?
Or because china brilliantly creating more 10-n-20 millionaires who wish to establish actually useful refuge, or because china tragically creating more financial refugees seeking true freedom?
What is Zarathustra's holistic and all-encompassing scenario, as opposed to merely, "gee, HK banks need more profit and so did and would continue to raise mortgage rate independently of the USA fed, and do so to point of causing a meaningful decline of the underlying real estate market that is mostly un-levered due to decades of growth and eons of savings".
In other words and repeat after me, Hong kong is neither zero-down USA nor pointless Ireland. And Hong kong is made of firmer stuffing that isn't England.
Zarathustra needs to formulate more of a holistic argument to hang a skimpy thong on, never mind anchoring a brainiac hat.
Moving right along, to examine the rest of the Zarathustra piece, and I quote, "Overall, these may mark the beginning of the end of the epic Hong Kong property bull market 2009-2011. Although I don’t expect any immediate huge drop in property prices, I believe the property market is now reaching its peak with very limited upside."
... Are we to understand that Zarathustra chanced upon the magic number at which the fed shall stop creating fiat money inflation to underpin the empire in it's dotage declining years?
Re above I have little to say except that enough folks, at the 1.3 billion margin, believe different.
My operating premise is that we are heading to dying empire anguish and birthing kingdom cry, separated by the darkest interregnum marked by a series of zero-state monetary resets.
Monetary resets are invariably preceded by fiat money inflation of essentially the hyper sort, and so one zarathustra's point is correct, that being "... that the true cause of rising property prices is monetary expansion due to in flow of capital and currency peg" remain operative, eecially as we enter the end-game phase.
My guiding principle is that we must prepare to survive the end game (7-15 long years) both the hyperinflation conflagration, where our markers spontaneously combust, and be set to weather diaper deflation shit storm of the perfect sort, where all that most have would be zero-ed out.
In scenario as pictured, people absolutely must not be short mix bag of physical goodies, because just about all paper bonds shall be severed even as most electronic equity would go dark. The goodness about physical is that 3 bedrooms today do not become 2 closets tomorrow. The perfection about hard asset is that a 32 troy ounces today remain a kilo tomorrow.
Will HK real estate fall tomorrow, 10, 100, 1,000 or 2,000 weeks from now? I don't know, for it all depends on whether there would be more buyers sporting ever more paper money at the bid. Hong kong is a tiny market. What do you think? If Vancouver can feature negative yield for years n decades, is hong kong different? How? Oh, yes, hong kong is only more worthy.
As to supply n demand, I just see crowds in hong kong, and I see real estate snapped up, and I see new influx of more crowds to snap up still more. Unless and until the wanna-buyers find something else more worthy and those cannot be dividend-free equity, less costly, of not so much headache, also allowing modest leverage and of convenient liquidity, HK real estate remains a money-good asset.
As to the hkd:usd peg, if hkd is indeed heading for de-peg per zarathustra's scenario, I have a suggestion, buy hong kong real estate; and
If not de-peg, I have a recommendation, buy hong kong real estate, because one day the hkd will de-peg from usd per end game scenario.
Remember, the fundamental truth is that we are experiencing near-end game fiat money bubble, and we are not living a hong kong real estate bubble. In the absence of direct leverage, paper money can go to zero, and HK real estate need not fall, because HK has savings, is at surplus, is lightly leveraged, backstopped by 1.3 + 1 billion souls, and is an oasis of liberty in the foolish desert of tyranny.
Besides, HK real estate, in gold terms, is heading to one of the cheapest levels. Of course, going forward gold may eventually fall by half, to usd 20,000 per troy ounce, and ex-burb new territories could fall 50% to usd 10,000 psf.
In the mean time I think the optimal asset allocation is 1/3 HK real estate, 33% precious noble strategic n antiseptic metals n their derivatives, and rest for astutely agile trading fun, buy when climbing walls are worrying, and sell when feeling bullish, re-balance as we go, mineralizing excess savings from paper metals machinations, and mortarizing surplus capital from rental yields.
Cheers, j, the unrepentantly faithful
P.s. By the way, do you happen to know what if anything Zarathustra recommends for bidding? Structured products? Yieldless scripts? Cambodian sovereign bonds? Tokyo real estate? Does his recommended solution set fit into his entire thesis of which HK real estate plays a necessarily minute role? Or he is just down on HK real estate?
Should Zarathustra have no holistic scenario into which HK real estate fits, then I suggest his opinions are less worthy because his thinking is either not fully expressed to stand the rigor of challenge, or he simply didn't think.
Is zarathustra also not keen on gold? If so, we must appropriately discount everything he notes, to zero.
Having noted all of the above, I may choose to go short HK / china real estate share basket, but if so, it would be a hedge as opposed to a high-conviction trade.
Sent from my iPad
On Mar 23, 2011, at 3:36 PM, B wrote:
Again, if fed funds just go up 450 bps to fair value, HK will find it will have to de-peg from the dollar…
Hong Kong Property: The Beginning Of The End
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16 March, 2011, 3:43. Posted by Zarathustra
Tags: Bubble, Hong Kong, Real Estate
Major banks in Hong Kong increased mortgage rates last week, and some other banks followed this week. The latest quotes you can get from a bank for mortgages would probably be the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) plus 120-130 basis points, almost doubled from the lowest point months ago when you could get HIBOR plus 65 basis points at the very lowest, and around 20-30 basis points more than two weeks ago.
Interest rates hikes by these banks have nothing to do with interest rates in the United States. Even with the currency peg, the belief that interest rates in Hong Kong will follow that of the United States is simply a fallacy, so it should not be surprising to see rates going up before the Fed. There is no major indication that funds are flowing away from Hong Kong despite the apparent weakness in Hong Kong dollar: HIBOR is still very low, and money supply actually rose back slightly in January. Some feared that Japan’s earthquake may cause funds to flow out of Hong Kong. Although there is certainly such possibility, this is not immediately obvious at this point. So I think the key reason why banks are increasing interest rates is simply that the interest rates were just too low for the banks to earn reasonable net interest margin, not a real rise in costs of funds or tighter liquidity.
Hong Kong Property Market is definitely a bubble being inflated by monetary expansion and the illusion of low supply, what it needs now is something to trigger the burst of it. In my 2011 Hong Kong Real Estate Market Forecast, I outlined some possible reasons that trigger the burst. Among them were an earlier-than-expected interest rate hikes in the United States, and the continuous tightening from China which slow down the economy and spill the effect over to Hong Kong. As of now, none of those two have happened and property prices have been steadily rising since the beginning of this year. However, mortgage interest rates are rising (albeit slowly).
Although such a rise shouldn’t be a great concern (for now), the fact that real estate prices have risen so much in the past 2 years makes Hong Kong property a very risky investment indeed, and such rise in interest rates weighs on sentiment. Together with the impact of Japan’s earthquake, market sentiment dropped over the weekend and transaction volume fell, and the stock market crash in Japan does not bode well for the property market sentiment even though the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake has very little to do with Hong Kong.
Overall, these may mark the beginning of the end of the epic Hong Kong property bull market 2009-2011. Although I don’t expect any immediate huge drop in property prices, I believe the property market is now reaching its peak with very limited upside.
And, further…
Hong Kong Property: The Real Supply Situation
Although supply-shortage is often being cited as the cause of high home prices in Hong Kong, I have repeatedly point out that the true cause of rising property prices is monetary expansion due to in flow of capital and currency peg. I have also pointed out earlier that increasing annual supply of residential units will not help because one have to take the total housing stock into account.
The following analysis tries to establish the true supply situation in the private residential real estate market and to estimate the possible over or under-supply in the private residential property market, taking the total housing stock into account instead of the annual supply. Then I will derive the required new housing supply level in the private sector that would keep the supply-demand balance unchanged from where it currently stands.
alsosprachanalyst.com
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