Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7007)	11/14/1997 12:18:00 PM
From: MJR	Respond to of 9285

News on AOL: Friday November 14, 11:59 am Eastern Time RESEARCH ALERT- America Online raised NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch on Friday raised its rating on shares of America Online Inc to near-term accumulate from near-term neutral, according to a source close to the Wall Street firm. -- Merrill kept its long-term rating on the shares at buy, the source said. -- No further information was immediately available. -- AOL shares were up 5-1/4 at 73-5/8 in late morning trading.

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7007)	11/14/1997 2:00:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

AHP: just shorted AHP (American Home Products. Marketers of Redux. IMO things will look worse and worse and worse. Short based mainly on potential produc liabilities and reversal of trend in sales growth. D/E ratio 0.7, good cash flow, p/s only 3.8. This is a paired short with my IPIC short. Nowhere as clear a short as the stocks usually discussed here. I am a loner on this one) Actually my intention is to hedge the short position with with LLY long but I think today is not a good shooping day. Pancho

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7007)	11/14/1997 2:06:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

SEEC Did it again! increased my short position by 50% at 22. Despite the announced stock issue. Pancho

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7007)	11/14/1997 3:08:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

Pancho... >>Pancho just joined the AOL short club at 74 3/16.<< May you make millions. This is a "zany" stock with some wild swings but fundamentals say SHORT. New subject: I have started to look at Biotime (BTIM) as a possible short. After looking into the company, I wonder!! For any one who is knowledgable about the drug industry or who may be interested in this company read on. Others can just go to next post. Description: (From Hoover) Development-stage biomedical company BioTime researches and develops aqueous-based synthetic solutions that can be used to replace massive blood loss during cardiac bypass and neurosurgery or due to traumatic injury. These solutions also are intended to work as plasma extenders, preservatives of body organs and tissues, and blood subsitututes during hypothermic (low-temperature) surgeries. BioTime's Hextend, PentaLyte, and HetaCool synthetic blood plasma expander products are composed of hydroxyethyl starch, electrolytes, sugar, and a buffer. Abbot Laboratories has the license to make Hextend. Company data 1. Market Cap ~ 208 Million 2. # shares 9m 3. Price /Book ~ 30 4. Price/sales ~ 1900! They really have not had any sales, just a $1.4M payment from Abbott labs. 5. Abbott Labs has paid BTIM an advance of $1.4M to license their only product. The following was taken from a press release. "This payment was issued to BioTime for entering into a license agreement with Abbott Laboratories for Hextend(R), BioTime's proprietary blood plasma volume expander solution currently in Phase III clinical trials, and for achieving a development milestone related to allowance of certain composition of matter patent claims." Abbott will manufacture and distribute this product in lieu of their own similar product which Abbott feels is knot as good and BTIM's. Phase III trials have been completed but no results have been published to my knowledge. (From a company Press release) 6. Company is covered by 3 analysts who rate this: strong buy (2) and buy (1). I worry about the quality of the ratings when so few analysts cover a stock. 7 Earning forecast for FY98 ( June) is -0.35. Zacks. With a one product company and possible FDA approval plus tie in with Abbott, this could be a winner. 8. Insider ownership = 45% 9. Over past yr. stock has gone from 8 (low) to 27 (high) currently at 20 Fundamentals seem to say short. However, if Phase III trials are successful, the tie in with Abbott for manufacturing and distribution should be very significant. I know very little about the drug industry thus I may never buy long or go short on this one but it seems interesting. Comments appreciated. Bob T. I would appreciate any comments from anyone who might be familiar with BTIM or the industry in general.