Gartner's Smartphone Crystal Ball (and IDC's for comparison) ...
I. Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sell Through Sales to End Users by OS (Millions of Units)
2010 2011 2012 2015
Operating Systen Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share
======== ======= ======== ======= ======== ======= ======== =======
Android 67.225m 22.7% 179.873m 38.5% 310.088m 49.2% 539.318m 48.8%
WinPhone 12.378m 4.2% 26.346m 5.6% 68.156m 10.8% 215.998m 19.5%
iOS 46.598m 15.7% 90.560m 19.4% 118.848m 18.9% 189.924m 17.2%
BlackBerry 47.452m 16.0% 62.600m 13.4% 79.335m 12.6% 122.864m 11.1%
Symbian 111.577m 37.6% 89.930m 19.2% 32.666m 5.2% 661m 0.1%
Other OS 11.417m 3.8% 18.392m 3.9% 21.384m 3.4% 36,134m 3.3%
-------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ ---------- ------
Total Market 296.647m 100.0% 467.701m 100.0% 630.476m 100.0% 1,104.898m 100.0%
Here's IDC's dart throw for comparison ...
II. Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 CAGR
2011 2011 ¡¡ 2015 2011-2015
Operating System Units¹ Share ¡¡ Operating System Share CAGR
======= ======= ¡¡ ======= ==========
1. Android 178.8m 39.5% ¡¡ 1. Android 45.4% 23.8%
2. Symbian 94.6m 20.9% ¡¡ 2. WinPhone 20.9% 67.1%
3. iOS 71.1m 15.7% ¡¡ 3. iOS 15.3% 18.8%
4. BlackBerry 67.5m 14.9% ¡¡ 4. BlackBerry 13.7% 17.1%
5. WinPhone/WinMob 24.9m 5.5% ¡¡ 6. Symbian 0.2% -65.0%
6. Others 15.8m 3.5% ¡¡ 5. Others 4.6% 28.0%
------ ------ ¡¡ ------ ------
Total 452.7m 100.0% ¡¡ Total 100.0% 19.6% ·
¹ 2011 Units are calculated from IDC's share percentages x their calculated total units
idc.com
>> Gartner Says Android to Command Nearly Half of Worldwide Smartphone Operating System Market by Year-End 2012
Gartner
Egham, UK
April 7, 2011
gartner.com
Worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. By the end of 2011, Android will move to become the most popular operating system (OS) worldwide and will build on its strength to account for 49 percent of the smartphone market by 2012 (see Table 1 above).
Sales of open OS¹ devices will account for 26 percent of all mobile handset device sales in 2011, and are expected to surpass the 1 billion mark by 2015, when they will account for 47 percent of the total mobile device market.
¹ An open OS makes a software developer kit (SDK) available to developers, who can use native application programming interfaces (APIs) to write applications. The OS can be supported by a sole vendor or multiple vendors. It can be, but does not have to be, open source. Examples are BlackBerry OS, iOS, Symbian, Android, Windows Phone, Linux, Limo Foundation, WebOS and bada.
“By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized,” said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner.
“As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers”, Ms. Cozza said. “Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets.”
Gartner predicts that Apple’s iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide through 2014 despite its share deceasing slightly after 2011. This reflects Gartner’s underlying assumption that Apple will be interested in maintaining margins rather than pursuing market share by changing its pricing strategy. This will continue to limit adoption in emerging regions. iOS share will peak in 2011, with volume growth well above the market average. This is driven by increased channel reach in key mature markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.
Research In Motion’s share over the forecast period will decline, reflecting the stronger competitive environment in the consumer market, as well as increased competition in the business sector. Gartner has factored in RIM’s migration from BlackBerry OS to QNX which is expected in 2012. Analysts said this transition makes sense because RIM can create a consistent experience going from smartphones to tablets with a single developer community and — given that QNX as a platform brings more advanced features than the classic BlackBerry OS — it can enable more competitive smartphone products.
Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013. Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia. Although this is an honorable performance it is considerably less than what Symbian had achieved in the past underlying the upward battle that Nokia has to face.
Gartner analysts said new device types will widen ecosystems. “The growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created. This will, by and large, function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales of open OS devices,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.
“Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone,” Ms. Milanesi said. “This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who don’t own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets.”
Gartner’s detailed forecast is available in the report “Forecast: Mobile Communications Devices by Open Operating System, Worldwide, 2008-2015.” The report is available on Gartner's website at gartner.com.
About Gartner: Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world's leading information technology research and advisory company. Gartner delivers the technology-related insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is the valuable partner to 60,000 clients in 11,000 distinct organizations. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A., and has 4,400 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants, and clients in 85 countries. For more information, visit gartner.com ###
>> You Can't Trust Gartner's Smartphone Os Forecast, Or Any Other
Joe Wilcox
Beta News
April 7, 2011
betanews.com
Gartner and IDC agree on something: Microsoft's mobile operating system will rank second to Google's by 2015. Both analyst firms largely, and possibly wrongly, assume that Windows Phone 7 will take over share given up by Symbian -- as Nokia swaps its mobile OS for Microsoft's. Meanwhile, Windows Phone would have little, perhaps no, organic sales growth. I don't believe it, and neither should you. The smartphone market is too volatile to predict that far ahead. The problem isn't specific to Gartner; every analyst firm is in the same boat trying to find land in stormy seas.
Gartner released its smartphone OS forecast today, and it is more bullish about the Symbian-Windows Phone switcheroo than IDC. Gartner predicts that Symbian will go from 19.3 percent market share this year to 0.1 percent in 2015. Windows Mobile will have 19.5 percent share, Gartner claims. IDC sees Symbian with 20.9 percent share this year and Microsoft's smartphone OS with the same percentage in 2015.
After IDC posted its forecast last week, I responded by promising to kiss Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's feet should Windows Phone 7 be No. 2 in 2015. I'm here to reaffirm that pledge -- that's how little confidence I have in these forecasts. Neither analyst firm has a good track record making predictions about the immediate smartphone market -- even just six months out -- which is reason enough to question forecasts four years ahead.
Forecasts that Missed
Anyone remember when Gartner was bullish on netbooks? Sales growth stalled after Apple shipped iPad last year. Now who's talking about netbooks in the enterprise? In September, Gartner forecast that Android would have 17.7 percent global smartphone OS market share for 2010. Reality: 22.7 percent. For this year, Gartner predicted 22.2 percent share, less than Android's 2010 actual. New 2011 prediction: 38.5 percent.
That Gartner's forecast is so radically changed in about seven months reflects the volatility of the smartphone market. Windows Phone was a goner by 2014, in the last forecast, falling to No. 6 -- get this, behind Meego. One Microsoft-Nokia deal later and Windows Phone is destined to be No. 2 in 2015, and that's way behind Android, which Gartner predicts will have 48.8 percent smartphone OS share. There's a reason why I asked in September: "Are IDC and Gartner mobile OS forecasts trustworthy?" The answer is an emphatic no.
Gartner predicts 468 million smartphones sold globally in 2011, up 57.7 percent year over year. By the way, in September Gartner under-forecast smartphone sales, predicting 268 million when they really were about 297 million. By that margin of error, NASA could never have successfully sent Apollo to the moon.
Ignoring the Larger Platform Battle
Any forecast involves risk. Analysts build their models based on assumptions they often can only guess at. For example, Gartner, like IDC, doesn't see much growth in Apple's iOS through 2015. IDC puts iOS market share as 15.7 percent this year and 15.3 percent in 2015. By comparison, Gartner sees iOS share going from 19.4 percent to 17.2 percent during the same time period. Among Gartner's reasons for predicting iOS declines: Apple putting margins before market share gains.
That's a fair assumption, but one likely to be proved wrong -- well, it already has been. Apple and AT&T offer the iPhone 3GS for about $50, or $150 less than iPhone 4. The pricing for an older model is clearly designed to grab market share. The iPhone 4 is a much better handset than 3GS, and it will be a compelling option should Apple, AT&T and Verizon make it available for that same 50 bucks after iPhone 5 ships.
Then there is the broader platform battle, where Apple has an early and growing lead. Just this week, David Willis, Gartner research director, described Apple as being "far ahead of any competition" in the tablet market. Simply stated: "Apple's lead will be very difficult to be beat." The broader platform is iOS and supporting Apple App Store behind both iPad and iPhone. The smartphone forecast seems to ignore the larger platform's impact on iPhone sales.
In a statement, Carolina Milanesi, Gartner research vice president, said that media tablets' sales growth would "widen the ecosystem" and "function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales" of devices like smartphones. "Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone. This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who don't own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets."
So, if Apple's lead in media tablets is "very difficult to beat," consumers will be drawn to a mobile OS available for smartphones and tablets, Apple offers iOS for both kinds of devices and consumers buying tablets will also buy smartphones, what conclusion does that lead to? There's huge strength in the broader platform, and that's not necessarily reflected in Gartner's smartphone forecast.
Gartner Redefines "Open"
The most interesting part of Gartner's forecast is adoption of so-called "open" operating systems. The analyst firm predicts open OSes will account for 26 percent of all handset sales, not just smartphones, this year. Gartner predicts the number will rise to 47 percent -- that's 1 billion units -- by 2015. However, Gartner's "open" doesn't refer to open source. The analyst firm counts any operating system with published SDK and APIs, including Apple's iOS and Windows Phone, to be open.
"By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized," said Roberta Cozza, Gartner principal analyst, in a statement.
Cozza sees Android's move down-market as having significant impact on ASPs: "Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets."
Now there's something else I hope Gartner is wrong about. Do you really want to pay $300 for a smartphone in 2015? Wouldn't $100 be better? ###
Comments:
Gartner can define 'open' any way they so choose and there are multiple accepted usages of the word 'open'.. Personally I have always viewed Symbian and Microsoft WinMob (now Windows Phone) as proprietary (owned and controlled by a single proprietor -- or in the case of Symbian before it bought out the other stakeholders, multiple proprietors) open (i.e. with published SDK and APIs and documentation, and freely licensed to others although not necessarily licensed for free). That of course is not 'open source' although Symbian was taken open source under EPL, but strictly speaking now isn't open source, although it is still capable of being licensed, and source code is available to accepted licensees under new terms. David Gilson of AAS comments on that "Symbian: now open or not?" here ...
allaboutsymbian.com
I have a hard time thinking of either iOS or Blackberry as open, even though they have SDKs and open APIs for developers, as far as I am concerned they are proprietary closed. Android is certainly open and (open source) but Google has enough control that I look at as being proprietary open.
- Eric - |
