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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11066)	11/14/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I hope you're breathing a little easier today... Which might have been an even better day if we'd traded 20M shares. I did want to restate that i stick by my often voiced assertion that this is not '95. That while it was pretty obvious the stock was ahead of it's self at 108 it is also pretty obvious that it is fairly priced, even a little cheap today... I have in previous posts discused ad infinitum the reasons why amat is better placed to manage its orders today than it was two years ago (its called market power), and why fabs are a little divorced from economic reality right now - it is my opinion that the fab is for the 21st century what a steel mill was to this... a statement of economic development and potential independance, which is why many govenments chose to subsidize fab construction. I therefore think those who bought at the lows this week got themselves a deal.... I think those who buy next week will also do ok... Personally I wouldn't leave it a much later than Wednesday... because if AMAT hits it's number the techs will go mad... Because potential disappointment is built into the price of the stock... One only has to do the math... I expect amat beats the # by 10-15% and does 50c... It will therefore have done 1.40 for the year (current PE 24 ish) .... Maybe they project $2.50 for next year... at the higher end of estimates perhaps, but not if they make 50c this quarter. The stock would have rise to 60 to maintain curent valuation, and maintaining current valuation is the least I'm expecting (or buy coke). *Off Topic* take a look at MOFN... 777 Film.... to me it is, after the on-line book stores, the most compelling internet sales play... with substatial database info product sales and advertising sales built right in.... it's moved 40% this week and is releasing results on monday after the close. It is reported that disney bought 100% of available advertising on the service next quarter just to stuff fox.