To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (13180 ) 11/14/1997 1:37:00 PM From: TechnoWiz Respond to of 27012
Hi Sonny: Seems like you're high in the popularity ratings over here. Don't take another trip...may have negative consequences for mkt! In regds to Mexico, as I said in my comment, there have been tremendous hidden benefits to US trade and employment for the US especially Texas, but it will take time for the full benefits to be realized. To be fair to Mexico, the devaluation of peso crippled their buying power but bought many imbalances into line and believe me now that Mexico is getting back on its feet, getting its house in order and gradually getting richer every day and there is an enormous deficit of capital goods and equipment and high tech is vintage in many businesses that will generate a huge pent up demand in the future. I also said it would help US trade if they eliminated ALL tariffs between the two countries ahead of schedule. Beaurocracy is still a dampener to free flow of exports. Imo, the big payoff and surprise to many for nafta will be the final humiliation for the naysayers when Mexico graduates to being the US's largest trading partner, something I believe is inevitable as business and cultures become increasingly and inextricably linked. The potential combination of a mature US economy with en emerging economy where some 35% of the pop ie 30 million is between 20 and 35 years old, creates a powerful demographic of consumer buying power. Have you noticed how strong WMT has been since it moved aggressively in to Mexico. In the event of and oil price surge, the economy in Mexico will be helped greatly as every $1.00 move in the price of oil is worth about 1 Billion to the economy. Imho, the future for NAFTA looks very bright and a hemispheric FREE trade agreement would be positively flourescent! As I suggested yesterday: Bulls might charge today (Friday) and stampede next week...so far so good but I think we need to go out with a strong close today for that to happen.