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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (51653)	4/4/2011 4:23:16 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95536

re solar stocks: That's a good article. Their assessment, on the various criteria, looks accurate to me. Perhaps I'd quibble with their Management scores. I would put more weight on the Financial Health score than they do. IMO, there is going to be a shake-out in this industry, due to oversupply and falling margins. We are already seeing some of the smaller "non-bankable" start-ups go bankrupt. So, I'd stay away from the hi-debt lo-margin solars (except perhaps as shorts), even if they otherwise look good. solar gross margins for CY2010: 46% FSLR 33% YGE 31% TSL 29% JKS 23% SPWRA 22% JASO 20% LDK 17% STP 15% CSIQ As you can see, quite a range. If everyone's gross margins decrease 10% (so, LDK goes from 20% to 10% GM), the companies at the bottom of the list won't be profitable, and will be forced to sell assets at distress prices, or abandon their expansion plans. disclosure: no current position in solars. I'll be buying FSLR, YGE, TSL, when the anticipated sector and/or market downturn happens.