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Technology Stocks : Smartphones: Symbian, Microsoft, RIM, Apple, and Others -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pyslent who wrote (1133)	4/6/2011 11:22:51 AM
From: Eric L	2 Recommendations Respond to of 1647

Smartphone ASPs in CY2010: Inside the Numbers Psylent, << Combining Strategy Analytic's Revenue estimates with IDC's unit shipment estimates yields the following smartphone ASP by vendor: -- Apple $604.21 & Nokia $157.53 >> SA uses USD as baseline for revenue. Euro and Won fluctuated against it considerably last year. Nokia smartphone ASP in USD was actually between $195 and $202 and $202 was more actually more accurate (see below). SA's Revenue is also incorrect. Lots of Analysts make the same lazy down and dirty type of mistake they make (i.e. Using a current conversion rate not the proper one). Asymco's talented chartist Horace Deidu, is famous for that. Nokia Smartphone ASP in CY2010 (From Quarterly Earnings Reports) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 CY 2010³ ==== ==== ==== ==== ======= ASP (Euro)¹ €155 €143 €136 €156 €148 ASP (USD) ² $208 $175 $185 $212 $195 ¹ Nokia published ASP at average daily conversion rate for Quarter ² Converted from Euro at last day of Quarter at Interbank rate (from Oanda FX). ³ Average of 4 Quarters: Total 2010 average in Euro converted at year end would be $196 Nokia Smartphone Revenuu, Units, & ASP in CY2010 (at Average Daily Forex Rate) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 CY 2010 ====== ====== ====== ====== ======= Revenue (Euro) €3,338 €3,429 €3,613 €4,407 €14,787 Revenue (USD)¹ $4,491 $4,613 $4,917 $5,379 $19,400 Units 21.5m 24.0m 26.5m 28.3m 100.3m ASP (Euro) €152.75 ASP (USD)² $201.87 ² Convered from Euro at Quarter ending Interbank Rate (from Oanda FX). ¹ As Nokia noted in their 20-F SEC filing, in 2010 the average exchange rate was 1.3216 - expressed in USD per euro. [€14,787 divided by 103.3m = €152.75 x 1.3216 = $201.87] No question but that Apple owns the high end of the smartphone market (units, revenue, profit) and that Nokia with the broadest smartphone range of any OEM but no high end offer in 2010 -- with N97 heavily discounted, the N8 in upper mid-tier, and E7 not yet shipping in Q4'2010 -- Nokia owned the low-end and mid-tier of smartphones with an ASP of ~$195 (€148) and in 2010 they surprised a lot of pundits by increasing smartphone volumes in every quarter both QoQ and YoY even though they lost share With the transition to WinPhone that won't be the case this year but they will be utilizing a new smartphone engine using dual-core integrated 1GHz processors and more RAM in upper end Symbian^3 smartphones.(as well as the current one) starting in H2 so their smartphone ASPs could lift in 2nd Half. Nokia is comparatively easier to abstract than any other of the top- 7 because they provide shareholders, investors, and financial analysts with considerably more detail and transparency than others in their earnings reports. They'll provide even more this year because starting in Q1 they'll break out costs for Mobile Phones (S30 & S40) separate from smartphone costs (R&D and SG&A). I wish every OEM would do that. Apple is really tough to get inside the numbers for and RIM in the last quarter provided less detail than usual. SE & Moto give smartphone units but not revenue and comparative ASP. Samsung provides total telecom (handsets and infra) when looking at op margins. And so it goes. BTW: I have a set of tables in progress that look at unit sell-in sales and share by vendor by year for the last decade and it concludes with both smartphone revenue and total handset revenue by top 5 vendors of each for CY2010. It will use SA's smartphone data which is total handset revenue for RIM and Apple (both of whom have fiscal years that don't end December 31). It should post this weekend. Cheers, - Eric -