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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (72819)	4/6/2011 3:45:30 PM
From: alpine_climber	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 219619

Although you didn't lay out your rationale for the (relatively speaking) massive dump of the very things you hold so close and dear, I'm thinking it could be some/all of the following: a) Mr. Bernanke will soon be outvoted at the Fed, and interest rates will rise very soon, and rapidly up; b) The gridlock we've seen in Washington is going to be resolved very soon, possibly within a few hours, at least for the 2011/2 budget, with massive cuts which is of course, quite deflationary for the markets, possibly worldwide; c) you are "hearing" (but not telling us yet) of an impending crack in the China economy, either in terms of social problems and/or slowing economy, or some other risk; d) you are perhaps seeing other investment alternatives, either in the Americas or perhaps even in Asia; e) I corresponded with some old Japanese friends in Kyoto, and while they are safe, it made me think how vulnerable human life (and wealthy possessions) really is. Perhaps you had some effect like this as well (tho I doubt it)? e) I know this is the time of the year when one pays respects to elders in your part of the world, which usually forces one to think of one's own life, so perhaps you're reflecting on giving some of the gifts showered on you to charity as well. Well, it'd be great to hear your response to the above, as many of us (like me) think you are the most consistent believer in the precious metals story. My reaction (to myself): is this the time to get into the likes of ERX, EDC, FAS, TYH to diversify from your doom scenario short term for precious metals? As a side comment, I did watch Mr. Steinhardt 'live' on CNBC yesterday, and concluded that he had a tinge of envy on his face as he commented (quite without any prompting btw) about the Oracle of Omaha. Imagine, they are almost the same age, while the latter has mostly lost all his hair, and seems to be spending most of his days these days among the animals in his private zoo, the Oracle is looking great, and getting better by the day: he is rapidly becoming an evangelistic global traveller these days, admired by people of all kinds of colour, still so so eloquent, never shows any bitterness towards others (that Mr. Steinhardt displayed plenty of)and you love listening to him.....he just has a great aura around him, and I feel it'll get better with time. If you looked at things from another angle, you could conclude that Mr. MS mostly built his fortunes 'running numbers', while Mr. WB built his fortunes 'running, in a fuzzy way, businesses'. I prefer the latter model, as it does take a lot of the human spirit to deal with loads of people, while most hedge fund managers of old tended to just be 'passive' investors.I wish I could have worded it better, but it's tough even getting one's thoughts organised on this topic. Thanks for the sharing, it did make everyone sit up and think hard as to what's really going on.....

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (72819)	4/6/2011 7:36:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219619

i figure - probable interim blowoff - as the possible interim breakout might be stillborn by end of qe2 not immediately followed on by start of qe3 (or at least hiccup due to debate or make-belief debate amongst the fed members and politicians and the 'people' ... on wall street - should the breakout be extended, i still have unencumbered gdx, paas, remaining paper gold, aussie hotsie totsie, and for exchange to paper at higher levels, and my encumbered abx, fcx, some paas and gdx would be called away - do realize i was high pm in all manifestations - i like pm, especially the underlying paper metals, because at times i hold 10-50x in pm than i would in any single-name paper construct of operating companies - i used to like currencies, when they were absolutely sure wagers, but they no longer are absolutely sure wagers - am convinced that gold shall revisit 1400 before the 6 months is out - in any case i have physical comfort - so risks are limited - besides, cannot buy later unless we sell some - especially in the case of platinum, which behaves differently to gold - silver is just nuts and needs an interim blowoff - we must either premise that the economic recovery is a sham, or we must suppose fiat money inflation shall stop - as the market debates, wobbles are inevitable. harsher the debate, bigger the wobble. we must remain enthusiastic for big wobbles, that which shakes coins out of the many - we are in a 7-15 years game, and most must fall so that a few may rise - i have not seen anything that shakes my conviction re fundamental premise, that be happy birthing inflation of the eastern kingdom, dying anguish deflation of the western empire, equalization of respective middle classes, teotwawki dawn, etc etc - the only safe wager is gold and solid platinum, and by proxy, silver and palladium, those which shall rise whichever way events work out or not - the only good metal is physical metal - but to embrace physical one must realize paper profit, by selling when others are buying, and picking up as and when others fall, and by cloud atm extractions, over and again, thrice more and then repeat - else the game is not self-sustaining