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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (51713)	4/7/2011 6:32:33 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

re GE solar: 1. This is a validation of CaTe technology. Many have said CaTe can't get much more efficient than it is now, and therefore is a technological dead end. GE obviously doesn't think so. 2. At best, GE won't be in volume production till 2014. That's so far in the future, it's not worth worrying about today. 3. The survivors in solar, will be the large-capacity low-cost producers. The top companies will have 1000MW/Y production capacity by end-2011, and probably 2000MW/Y by end-2013. It's getting steadily harder to get into the solar industry, as the established companies have economies of scale, efficiencies, and "bankability" that new entrants can't match. 4. Only token amounts of solar panels are produced anywhere other than E. Asia. Companies that produce in N. America and Europe are going bankrupt, or moving to China, Malaysia, etc. 5. Wind is reducing costs (in $/MW) by 3%/y, but solar is reducing costs by 10%/y. Wind may have the advantage today, but solar will be the eventual winner.