Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (72980)	4/11/2011 4:18:39 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218645

People are mostly innumerate: <How and why did the authorities allow such idiocy?> And the understanding of geological processes is a relatively recently understood business. When I was young, the idea of plate tectonics was barely continental drift. They probably didn't even realize Lake Taupo itself was a volcano. They probably thought the water got there from running down the Tongariro river, getting stuck in a big hollow. People are very bad at understanding low probability events, especially those over a long time range of many lifetimes. I calculate the odds of Taupo erupting in any 70 year lifetime at about 1:10. Those are not odds I accept. Driving through Taupo is okay. Even staying overnight. That gives me a 1:10x70x365 odds of doom. That's not too dangerous. I did get quite a fright 30 years ago when there were earthquake flurries in previous weeks and I was staying overnight. As I checked in to the motel, I casually mentioned the earthquakes and the lady said "Oh, they are going all the time". I must have gone sort of white as she assured me not to worry about the earthquakes as they were quite small. I had thought they had finished. I didn't bother telling her I was not at all worried about earthquakes. Then, I went to my room and there was a programme on tv about volcanoes. Then, the town siren went off. I had to keep telling myself it was all just coincidence and don't be so jumpy. It's reasonable that people live there, but they should be informed of the danger which I doubt many of them understand even slightly. Certainly, children don't. Mqurice