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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10633)	4/12/2011 9:12:41 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 16955

correction: I meant $11.83, not $10.83, eom

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10633)	4/18/2011 3:14:45 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16955

Solars: buy this dip? 1. TAN went below $8 today, as it has many times since late 2008, so it's time to think about whether to buy. 2. Making money in solars requires maintaining the discipline, of never chasing these stocks, never buying when they are in favor, waiting (and then waiting some more) for the right price. 3. The market: S&P500 has doubled since the recession lows. We had a 17% correction in mid-2010. We will have another big correction at some point. 4. Oil prices (and all commodities) are getting high enough, to cause inflation, and start to hurt consumer spending. Remember, last time, $150 oil did not help solar stocks. 5. Almost the only exception to high energy and commodity prices, is natural gas. So, solars get hurt by both high oil and low natgas. That's the main reason many solars have a single-digit PE. 6. This overall picture makes me (still) reluctant to take any LT position. If I buy, I will probably (again) sell the next rally. 7. Industry-specific: I am convinced, none of the solars are going to achieve their 2011 guidance. The leading companies (low-cost "bankable") will make their sales targets, but not make their guidance for margins and profits. Panel and cell prices will fall more than currently expected. We may get the first hints of this in 1Q11 reporting. If we do, I'll buy the dip; if we don't, then I'll wait till 2Q11 reporting. It will happen. 8. My tentative buy ranges (that means, begin buying at the top of the range, have a full position at the bottom of this range): TAN $8-6, $6 is the 2010 lows; I doubt we go lower, absent a global recession; in this range, buy solars in this order: FSLR $130-100, again, 100 is the 2010 lows; we are almost in buy range; wait for a high-volume day (at least 6m shares) to indicate a medium-term bottom TSL $23-15 YGE $10.5-8 JKS $20-10 LDK 5-3.5, I'd consider going long, only on a truly brutal downturn; wait till they have to sell more assets to reduce debt SPWRA $9-5, wait till everyone is talking about their debt and low margins; their brand name and Systems business are probably worth $5 Also: FAN (wind ETF) below $10 CCJ (uranium miner) below $22 FCG (natgas ETF) wherever it is when the S&P500 is 10% below its highs