To: crs who wrote (128 ) 11/14/1997 9:23:00 PM From: elk Respond to of 3178
crs, Thank you for the info. into IDTC. I've been following them only a short while and only on a surface level, until recently. I like what they have and what they are doing. I also agree that they have excellent prospects. But rather than their success drawing money from the smaller players, I think it will attract new money for many of them. I know I may be optimistic but this industry is still new as a concept to most investors, whether institutional or private. As it moves from the drawing board to implementation, everyone benefits. The volume of net minutes will be more important to prove that this is a crucial market of the future, in the respect that, if you do not have a presence in it, you are not a player in the telecom industry. Look at what an alliance with Duestche Telecom has done and there's many large fish out there, yet to be hooked.(sorry, couldn't resist the metaphor:-) I don't know how many years of research went into IDTC's technology, but I'm sure it was at least 2-3 yrs of development. I know that over 2 yrs went into FTEL's Tempest hardware and software. That kind of development is very hard duplicate without actually going through the process. It speeds the cycle by seeing the finished product, but it's hard to see that being less than a year; instead latecomers to the game may very well try and find a second party product, before the competition puts them firmly behind. This leaves room for a lot of people to fill that void. How much room depends upon how big one feels this market will become. Lucent's announcement that they were entering the IT hardware business, gave the entire industry a signifiacnt boost. In many respects, it legitamized it to many investors. When WorldCom or ATT decides that Internet Telephony is a large factor in their Teleco war, the scramble will be on. This may lead to some 'fat' times for all of the companies mentioned on this board, in the next year or two. However, the true thinning of the herd is probably 2-3 yrs away. At that time, the decisions made now will matter the most. Alliances, deployment, strategy etc. at that point will be critical. We will probably see about 7 co.'s(not counting the likes of Lucent) rise into the 20s-30's in the next year, but 3 yrs from now will see probaly see 2 of those in the 100 neighborhood, while the rest go back to pressing circuit boards:-) Invest in the companies with good management and vision, or so I've always heard. In the heady times that lay before IT, the old advice is always the best. Look forward to hearing from you, Evan