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Gold/Mining/Energy : JAB International (JABI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Milk who wrote (1208)	11/14/1997 8:29:00 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 4571

Milk, While what you say is true about BCMD under a low POG, if low production costs are achieved, I suspect the POG going under $300 will cast even more gloom over the whole gold spectrum. On the other hand if we have a quick spike down followed by a recovery to above $300, this is one scenario that based on the past would indicate the probability of the long awaited bull in gold has finally begun and the bear is over. Unfortuantely, if the POG does not turn around soon, then it is likely under the sway of other market forces which will not allow its rise until their force is exhausted. Supply and demand are both swayed in our favor by the drop in the POG as you infer, but I would rather not wait around another year or two in this smelly bear cave we are in. While as a news stock with unknown but potentially good reserves and costs of production BCMD is not buffeted by the chill wind upon the POG as are other gold stocks, nontheless we probably would not have bounced off resistance near $1.50 as hard we did had the POG cooperated. Most shorts that I hear target 280-285 for a low, most longs are in shock. As for me, my bets are in that the bottom for gold is consolidating and the bear will begin to turn no later than Jan 98. If I am wrong I will get hurt some but will probably hold, contrary thing that I am. Finally I suspect that BCMD may be reticent to release its good news while gold is falling through the floor, since they know the calculators will be figuring their worth with a lower POG than might transpire soon. But then what do I know, I am a long goldbug being mauled by the bear, BCMD and silver being my only bright spots. Fortunately together they are my majority holdings. Roebear