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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Smith who wrote (161578)	4/18/2011 8:48:45 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 542970

Oh, God... not again. Here's what's happening in the real world.. (USG wikileaks predicted this in '07 US embassy cables: Saudi oil company oversold ability to increase production, embassy told guardian.co.uk ) 1) Saudi does not have extra "light" oil that they were not producing all along. Some of their oil is light, but not nearly as light as the Libyan oil that is off line. But most of their oil is heavier sour oil. It is a joke that Saudi can blend heavier oils and get light oil from it. 2) Internal oil consumption peaks in the summer(about 350,000-400,000 bpd extra is needed compared to the winter months), and this makes perfect sense and it's timed perfectly. graph Message 27317063 I'm thinking maybe they mean "internal demand is well supplied". I'm also thinking this means world production is down about 2 M BPD since Libya started. == From 2002 to 2005, the Saudis responded to rising oil prices with sharp increases in net oil exports: 2002: 7.1 mbpd & $26 ?2003: 8.3 mbpd & $31? 2004: 8.6 mbpd & $42? 2005: 9.1 mbpd & $57 But then we have post-2005 Saudi Arabia, when the Saudis responded to generally rising oil prices with declining net oil exports: 2006: 8.4 mbpd & $66? 2007: 8.0 mbpd & $72? 2008: 8.4 mbpd & $100 ?2009: 7.3 mbpd & $62 ?2010: 7.4* mbpd & $79 Message 27317067 == OPEC Supply Falls to Six-Month Low on Libya, Oil Movements Says By Grant Smith - Mar 24, 2011 9:30 AM PT inShare0More Business Exchange Buzz up! Digg Print Email The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut oil shipments to their lowest level since October as civil war halts exports from Libya, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. Shipments will fall to 23.03 million barrels a day in the four weeks to April 9, down 1.8 percent from 23.46 million in the period to March 12, the consultant said in a report today bloomberg.com == OPEC Supply to Drop 2.3% on Libyan Losses, Oil Movements Says By Grant Smith - Mar 31, 2011 8:30 AM PT Shipments will fall to 22.91 million barrels a day in the four weeks to April 16, down 2.3 percent from 23.44 million in the period to March 19, the consultant said in a report today. That’s the lowest since mid-October, the company estimates. The data exclude Ecuador and Angola bloomberg.com == and Angola is decreasing, too Angolan crude oil exports to slip in June: trade The west African country plans to export 1.40 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June on 44 cargoes, down from 1.48 million bpd originally planned for May on 48 cargoes. Angolan crude oil exports: June 1.40 mb/d May 1.48 April 1.50* March 1.73* * Source Before the months of May and June, April was the lowest for around four years (Source): Revised loading programmes for Angola suggest it may export less than 1.5 million bpd in April, the lowest for around four years, as maintenance work hampers production, trade sources say. theoildrum.com