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To: ChanceIs who wrote (149713)	4/19/2011 10:07:31 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	8 Recommendations Respond to of 206113

<Niall Ferguson: Oil could reach $200> Niall Ferguson and Jared Diamond are my favorite "big picture" authors. When I read the Wall Street Journal, or Al Jazeera, I frequently find myself thinking, "Yes, they are doing today, exactly what the British Empire did in the 1800s, or exactly what the Easter Islanders did." Technology changes, but the human heart doesn't, so we see the same patterns, over and over in history. Since we first invaded Afghanistan, I've considered it a utopian fantasy, this project to turn them (or Iraq, or Libya, or...) into a free-market democracy. Egyptians don't want democracy, they want jobs, and food and fuel at affordable prices. Mubarak lost power, not because he didn't allow freedom of expression, but because he didn't raise living standards.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (149713)	4/20/2011 10:18:33 AM
From: ChanceIs	1 Recommendation Respond to of 206113

RE: MENA Unrest and Production - Hangin' at the NCAC Last Friday was my monthly energy economist geek luncheon: Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and Oil and Gas Markets with Fareed Mohamedi. Mohamedi grew up in the ME and has spent at least 20 years in the trenches and management of energy firms practicing there. This guy knew it all, had no agenda, and absolutely no BS. Highlights: Saudi does have about 1 MMBPD of spare capacity. They will become victims of the land export model around 2020. Crude will become permanently higher because of the new requirement for additional spending for social mollification - prophylactic against regime change. (Memo to Prez Obama: The sheiks method of fighting regime change is the same as yours - shower dollars. Except the sheiks sell valuable oil and give away bucks w/o the need for any comment, while you print dollars and blame speculators. They are in a much stronger position than you.) Refers to MENA as "Anarcistan." There should be no fundamental expectation of democracies developing in the MENA. Basically it is all too religiously factional, poor, uneducated, blind through centuries of low grade civil war, and generally too much of a clusterf&^k. (last characterization my own expression and interpretation.) Food inflation is a very big deal. Mohamedi confessed being blindsided (Black Swanned) by his near total underestimation of its strength and effect. Algeria has light sweet crude but isn't a candidate for supply disruption because the regime there is willing to kill (political opposition organizers and rioters) w/o a second thought - and the people know it. Tunisia was betrayed by the Army. The Army wouldn't shoot its own citizens (despite orders from the regime - my interpretation). Don't forget to come to Washington on May 27th to hear own "emeritus" Frank Clemente address our group: ncac-usaee.org ___________ In these "interesting times," one can get a lot of mileage (pick up chicks) by relating this tired but timeless joke (told by Mohamedi to start his lecture): A scorpion and frog sat on the west bank of the Jordon river wanting to cross to the east side. A conversation ensued: Scorpion: Mr. Frog, when you swim across the river, please take me on your back. Frog: What are you nuts!?!? You are a scorpion, you will sting me and kill me with your venom. Scorpion: How foolish is that!?!? If I sting you, then we will both drown. Frog: You have a good point, get on. Halfway across the river, the scorpion stings the frog. As they both bobble on the waves with their final breathes, the conversation resumes: Frog: What in the hell did yo do that for, now we are both toast!?!? Scorpion: Because it's the Middle East.