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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (42338)	4/21/2011 1:39:12 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78525

Hedged some of my long exposure with an SPY short position at the close. I'd rather be short IWM (Russel 200 ETF) but can't get any borrow - how can this be with a super liquid security like IWM? MCHB announced earnings after the close to day - 3.8M$ in Q1 2011 earnings which translates into 200$/share, about flat with last quarter. Tangible equity is about 14800$/share and in addition they run a wealth management operation with 1.345B$ in assets under management. Take a very conservative 2% of that as a value estimate and this another 27M$ or ~140$/share in implied value. Apparently these guys don't care about splits. Back in Y2007, this bank made ~1500$/share in earnings and in a "normalized" environment, they should get this earnings power back, since they did not incur any dilution during the credit crisis. they have plenty of capacity in increase lending with ~900M$ in cash and short term investments on their book and an ~15% Tier one ratio. I probably would not have bought this if this bank were not local. It might take some patience for this to play out.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (42338)	6/17/2011 1:40:34 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78525

I did add 20% to my significant position in Itochu 8001.T tonight. It's a pretty cheap basic material (minerals, energy) and infrastructure play. I decided to average up because it looks very cheap - furthermore their plan is to increase the dividend substantially to 33Yen/share in 2002 - not bad for a stock trading at 780 Yen currently. itochu.co.jp This is a company that is still not the most efficiently managed but it's getting better and strong since i first looked at it in 2008. They were smart to buy mining assets (iron ore etc.) in 2008/2009 when they were available at attractive prices and used their ability to issue cheap debt in Japan at very low rates at a time when the credit market were frozen. Now instead of the 3 traditional legs (Steel/machinery/ food) they have 5 legs ( minerals/ energy), a more international business mix and much more earnings power.