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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73376)	4/20/2011 6:47:02 AM
From: alpine_climber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218879

If I look at the relative pricing of the precious metals, it seems as though the only 'bargain basement' price level left is for copper. Everyone seems to be forgetting that the whole world is on a infrastructure boom, there have been lots of not-so-creative-destruction in Japan, NZ, Australia, China just within the last 24 months, and people are signing up in droves to be electrified, internet connected, and all lead pipes in upper class homes are being replaced with copper ones. On top of this, a brief visit to Shenzhen will prove to anyone that the amount of copper going into wire harnesses in cars, vacuum cleaners, and every other form of electric motors is all going to drive up 'industrial' demand for copper, methinks even more than silver. Grateful for your views, esp if anyone has thoughts on which way to play a copper boom.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73376)	4/20/2011 8:38:00 AM
From: carranza2	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 218879

Your friend fails to make an important assumption, one implicit in Hussman's article: QE2 has for all practical purposes already ended. As I recall about 85% of the Fed's gunpowder has been spent so additional QE to end of June will be slowed (and probably has already slowed) considerably. What this substantial slowing in QE will do to short term rates without the Fed's intervention bears watching. If they remain at present levels, look for the Fed to do nothing. If they go slightly higher, look for the Fed to probably do nothing for the market will be doing its work. If the go substantially higher, look for Fed jawboning. The object will be to gradually raise rates without encouraging inflation. I don't think it makes any difference to the Fed if this happens organically or via its policy actions, so long as it happens. If the Fed succeeds in this strategy, gold investors are screwed for real rates will be going up, i.e., nominal rates minus inflation becomes a larger number. With higher oil prices fueling inflation, I don't see how this can happen, but who knows, they can drop, too. I kinda think this is the basis of the advice you might have been listening too when you sold paper gold recently. It's not bad advice, but I truly think one needs to keep an eye on the actual versus theoretical direction of short term rates before thinking about selling because tea-leaving their direction is not an easy thing. On the other hand, Bernanke could pull a fast one on us and announce a rate increase out of the blue and give us a good screwing that way....won't be the first time. lol