Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Stirling who wrote (23544)	11/14/1997 10:57:00 PM
From: Larry J.	Respond to of 61433

Jack, That is one tough call. I have been (halfheartedly) speculating doing the same thing. While not a particularly compelling reason, I have decided to stay put with my entire position of ASND because I have been burned too may times swithing equities just in time for the big announcement. Good Luck!

To: Jack Stirling who wrote (23544)	11/14/1997 11:36:00 PM
From: Harry Ehrlich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Jack, I will give you my input on your ASND position. But please bear in mind the following. You must do your own analysis and make your own decisions. There is an old saying that says when you put two traders together, you wind up with the worst of both. Having said the above, my thoughts are as follows. You hold the stock in your IRA, so you really don't need the money for a while (unless you are close to retirement). The alternate stocks you mention, JBIL and RMBS are volatile like ASND. RMBS is in a downtrend. I don't know about WDC. So, I don't know that you would do any better by jumping around; you might do worse. You did say you never shorted a stock, so I assume you are not an experienced trader, but instead an investor. Since your position is long term (it's an IRA) you can sit back and wait for a buyout, or for the price to go up, which it will. ASND is an excellent company, it is simply out of favor right now. Investors Business Daily rates ASND as 85 2 D. The 85 means that ASND outclasses 85% of all rated stocks when it comes to earnings; this in spite of its recent earnings shortfall. The 2 is a low rating for price action, but we already know the price action is bad. The D is for accumulation/distribution. Last week the rating was E, which is the worst. So there has been recent improvment in accumulation/distribution. Maybe the bleeding is getting ready to stop. Your question leads me to a very interesting point. The other day, someone on this thread pointed out that the market makers are accumulating Ascend. The web site nasdaqtrader.com was mentioned in that post. By going there and keying in ASND, you will see that the big boyz are accumulating. The question in the post was: why? The stock is down. I think I finally figured out the answer. Some on the thread felt that this was a sign that the stock is ready to rise. I don't agree with that. I think the answer lies in the fact that the market makers have VERY DEEP pockets. They can afford to accumulate this stock and sit on it. Even if it takes a year or two to come back, they know they will easily double their money. For the short term trader, this is too long a time frame. Since you are in an IRA, you can sit back and wait, just like the big boyz. This is a great position to be in. If you really feel you must get out, I would not go with volatile stocks. Currently, the Yield Curve is about 60 basis points. This is the spread between the 10 year note and the 3 month bill. This is a narrow spread and suggests that you invest in stable growth stocks right now, such as Gillette or stocks from the defensive index. This is not the best economic time to go after the tech stocks. I would wait until the yield curve breaks 100 basis points. The yield curve is an extremely accurate economic indicator and it is a leading indicator. One reason it is accurate is that it can not be manipulated, the debt size is too large. If you check, you will see the defensive stocks holding quite well, while the tech stocks are tanking. How's that for a long winded answer? Good luck. Harry

To: Jack Stirling who wrote (23544)	11/15/1997 12:56:00 AM
From: Harry Ehrlich	Respond to of 61433

Jack, I made a mistake in my post to you. Gary Korn picked it up. The nasdatrader site shows volume and not accumulation by market makers. But Gary does have info from another site that shows accumulation. He will post that info shortly in a new thread called ASND-MarketGuide. Harry