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To: teevee who wrote (149960)4/23/2011 10:17:34 AM
From: ChanceIs1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206097
 
>>>Wrong. The gov't will do what it always must do-make the pie bigger which makes the debt smaller.<<<

I don't disagree that that very foul act is what the government will attempt/do. I simply question whether it will work this time. Economics - that "science" - that very "dismal science" - seems to live in a coordinate frame of marginal utility or diminishing marginal returns. I wish they would get with the rest of the scientific community and speak in terms of asymptotic behavior. Of course asymptotic behavior isn't quite the same as marginal utility, because marginal utility is more concerned with the "sensitivity" about an arbitrarily chosen operational point. Economists seem to lack the fundamental instinct to examine the sensitivity out at infinity, or should I say equivalently printing $1.6 trillion a year or otherwise financing the entire annual deficit with greenbacks upon which the ink has not yet dried. I will give Rogoff and Reinhardt credit for asking the question and after much study forwarding the notion that the SHTF when the (total debt)/GDP ratio approaches 90%.

See also the Charles Hugh Smith article Your Pick, Ben, But One Goes Off the Cliff which I posted here yesterday. Smith does a much better and in depth analysis of what might be called the "tipping point" vice asymptotic behavior than I have given here. For sure, the behavior of the Fed in June will determine the direction of the markets for the next several months.

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