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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3493)	11/15/1997 12:53:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Asian Semi sales set new records: Headline: Asian Semiconductor Industry: October Sales Highest for Year to Date Author: Richard C. Wei Today's Date: 11/13/97 * October sales for Taiwan semiconductor companies were up 10% sequentially and 30% year on year. * Six Taiwan semiconductor companies posted their best monthly sales ever. * We expect November sales to be marginally higher. * September sales for the worldwide semiconductor industry were up 15% year on year and up 26% sequentially. Taiwan semiconductor companies in aggregate reported sales for October that were up 10% sequentially and 30% year on year. Sales for the month represented the sixth consecutive sequential monthly gain for this group of companies. We expect sales in November to be marginally higher. The three packaging companies, ASE (2311.TW, NT$118.50, 1-Buy), Orient Semiconductor (2329.TW, NT$53, not rated) and Siliconware Precision (2325.TW, NT$79.50, 3-Neutral), saw their combined sales rise 15% sequentially and 31% year on year. All three companies reported their highest monthly sales ever. Among the foundries, TSMC (2330.TW, NT$125, 3-Neutral) achieved the highest monthly sales in the company's history, surpassing its record set in September. UMC (2303.TW, NT$66, 3-Neutral) posted its highest monthly sales since November 1996. Winbond Electronics (2344.TW, NT$43, 3-Neutral) achieved its highest monthly sales since November 1995. We believe all three companies are likely to report higher November sales. Mosel Vitelic (2342.TW, NT$41.90, 3-Neutral) was the only company in the group to report a sequential sales decline. We do not see any short-term relief for the company. Macronix (2337.TW, NT$48.50, 3-Neutral) reported its best monthly sales since December 1995. (It could be the company's highest monthly sales ever, but our data is incomplete for periods before December 1995.) Given that Macronix's new 8-inch fab is ramping up, demand for its mask ROM products are seasonally strong, and the company is starting volume shipment of its microcontroller with embedded flash memory to Philips (PHIL, 140.30 NLG, 3-Neutral), we believe the company should report higher November sales. We are maintaining our recommendations. Within the sector, we continue to like the IC assembly and test companies because we believe the outsourcing trend in the industry should cushion the negative impact of a potential industry slow-down in 1H98. We also like Macronix because its margins are less volatile compared with companies whose products are more commodity in nature. Additionally, Macronix is the only company in the group whose business is not closely linked to the PC industry. Monthly Sales in 1997 (NT$ Mil.) -------------------------------------------------------------- Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Seq Yr/Yr -------------------------------------------------------------- Packaging: ASE 689 882 879 857 873 1011 1176 1271 1402 10% 48% Orient 600 700 689 703 674 710 714 707 847 20% 5% Siliconware 474 613 519 523 459 577 668 656 774 18% 42% Mask: Taiwan Mask 105 125 131 134 149 161 165 140 171 22% 54% Foundry: TSMC 2274 2797 2700 3131 3452 3602 3901 4214 4733 12% 67% UMC 1866 2101 2040 1968 2030 2002 2121 2161 2247 4% -7% Proprietary Products: Macronix 660 634 714 642 604 752 803 908 1128 24% 24% Mosel 541 573 562 662 583 605 814 852 835 -2% -15% Winbond 618 762 833 841 880 1187 1412 1457 1518 4% 59% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Total 7826 9188 9068 9460 9703 10606 11774 12365 13654 10% 30% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: Company data. Taiwan Mask (2338.TW, not rated) closed at NT$135. Separately, the Semiconductor Industry Association reported that worldwide industry sales in September totaled US$13,814 million, up 15% year on year and up 26% sequentially. Unit volume grew 23% from the year-earlier period and was up 16% sequentially.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3493)	11/15/1997 12:16:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 10921

I'm speculating that today's rally was partially driven by Market Makers covering short positions before having to report Ian, Why do you speculate that the MM's would want to report they hold a portfolio of stocks which have been decimated recently? My inclination would be to believe that the selling before a report date would climax after the horrible month we've just experienced. If I was a MM, I would want to report that I had much $ in cash, even if I had only just sold off losing positions to do so. TIA for any thoughts. Regards, brian