Fascinating summary of global trends, elmat.
cat 1, gracious decline, the Old Empires: an educated workforce is not a trivial asset. Companies like Siemens are not "tiny little". These are all nations that have given up on political/military conquest, and no longer have any aspirations of Empire ("nation building" would be the polite modern euphemism for this). If they aspire to anything in the wider world, it is economic and cultural. They will do better than you imagine.
cat 2, the imperial anglos, US and UK: as you say, <Debt load will sink both countries>. Best case, they transition into cat 1, after a few more humbling economic/military defeats.
cat 6: the small humble anglos: Australia, NZ, and Canada will sell their raw materials to the highest bidder, and continue being among the best places on earth to live. They have all the advantages of cat 1 and 2, and none of the disadvantages. Staying out of Africa is an advantage; every foreigner who goes to Africa, ends up chopping the hands off Africans who don't fulfill their rubber-gathering quota, (like the Belgians did in the Congo), or polluting their souls by doing some other atrocity in the name of progress. The Chinese will be corrupted if they colonize Africa, whether the colonization is explicit (political/military), or indirect (acting thru paid proxies, and economic control).
cat 3,4: a heterogeneous list of little countries that will go various ways, some surprisingly good, some surprisingly bad. As you say, they will accommodate to living in the economic shadow of China, India, Brazil.
cat 5: oil exporters with medieval non-functional cultures. As you say, <They (young men) reached the ages they want to raise families but they cannot afford the married life....They revolt.> Socially, an ugly part of the world, and will get uglier. Message 27528061
cat 7, Africa: <Emerging countries will ally with the local elites to develop those resources. Differently from colonial masters, they do not want political power or to rule the negroes just do business with them> Sorry, but this is a pious hope. History says: first come the traders, then the evangelists, then the soldiers and administrators, then the torturers and their apologists. That's the slippery slope, and it's just wishful thinking, to imagine Brazil and China won't make all the same mistakes the U.S. and U.K made. China is already setting up "Confucious Institutes" all over the world. It won't be too long, before China sends soldiers to protect all their investments and "vital interests" in Africa. Brazil, with 1/5 the population of China, and 1/5 the arrogance, will commit 1/5 as many atrocities in Africa, compared to the Chinese. New Zealand, having finally learned the lesson of Gallipoli, will avoid foreign entanglements, and keep their hands and souls relatively clean.
Have you read King Leopold's Ghost? An excellent book: amazon.com
<Latin Americans...expect them to throw overboard their colonized mind-set.> Don't you see the irony, of making that statement...in English?
There is an emerging Global Culture. It won't be Anglo, and it won't be Brazilian or Chinese either. It will be something new, a chimera with borrowed parts of all the cultures it replaces. It will be created by your grandchildren and mine and Jay's, and neither you nor I nor he will understand it.
Thanks for posting your thoughts.
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