am thinking staying clear of silver until as n when, but be ready to short puts (to eventually long equity) on paas and sil (silver miner etf)
in the mean time, just cleared from e-mail tray
From: Jay
To: Andrew
Cc: Michael
Sent: Thu, April 28, 2011 2:05:00 PM
Subject: Re: Top of silver
hi andrew, all depends on time horizon.
continuous and end of thought process, now that i am done laughing on the floor, for it is sad for me to think that the two hunt brothers plus a few saudi arabians did get silver to the once rare level of 50, and now, with a few dozen sovereign funds, still the saudis and all their jasmine fellow travelers, and 2.8 billion chindians, plus the 18,000 hedge funds and we would only manage silver top at 50?
hedge fund managers are good money aggregators, mostly, and poor macro trend discerners, due to emphasis of training over education, learning over reflection, watching own naval as opposed to ... but i digress :0)
true bull markets reward the truly faithful, even as we trade in/out, zig then zag, to and fro, much as we might with some girlfriends, by long covered calls and short naked puts, to fully harness the wave-like energy of the force as we try to keep in tune with the force.
may your mates be properly rewarded for calling the top on silver even as we cannot possibly know what the top for gold would, should, or could be.
as a matter of disclosure,
- i off loaded my paper silver, paper platinum, and 1/3 of paper gold,
- even as i continue to keep faith by physical gold and platinum,
- am out of vast majority of gdx, have no short put exposure, and what longs i have are callable at 62, and
- i wait to re-enter paas and sil, first by shorting puts
i am uncomfortable about qe2 ends and qe3 not to start until the blood curdling screaming starts, in earnest.
to say silver has topped is like ... well like saying dollar has bottomed, but i repeat myself.
to piss against silver shall turn out to be just like pissing uphill and against the wind, by group action, i say, so that i am not repeating myself.
if one believes the dollar has bottomed, then one should go short usa equities, i suppose, because the economy is surely going nowhere and doing so in no hurry. but then one should go short usa equities anyway whether or not silver has topped.
but let us watch, for if one is right, no need to debate, and if wrong, cannot afford to argue.
all in fun, else what is the fun?
cheers, jay
From: Andrew
To: Jay
Cc: Michael
Sent: Thu, April 28, 2011 1:19:32 PM
Subject: RE: Top of silver
Jay
Without my mate getting personal, he disagrees
He and 2 others run a medium hedgefund
Andrew
From: Karl
Sent: Thursday, 28 April 2011 12:15 PM
To: Andrew
Subject: RE: Top of silver
Silver / gold, Jay had better check his facts
From: Jay
Sent: Thursday, 28 April 2011 10:21 AM
To: Andrew
Cc: Michael
Subject: Re: Top of silver
- silver is just getting started
- even if silver drops by 40% its bull trend would be still intact
- silver heretofore was just catching up with gold, even as gold is undervalued against just about all other metals
- silver has not yet caught up with gold
- calling silver top presupposes one can call dollar bottom
- calling dollar bottom at this juncture would be ... well, silly
- having noted all of above, perhaps one ought to
(i) long slv put (i rarely buy options except to close)
(ii) short puts on paas and / or sil (silver miner etf)
my guiding premise continues to be "inflation of the east, deflation of the west" and that we are progressing well
while qe3 would not automatically follow qe2, qe3 shall be tee-ed up the minute the screaming starts and cities burn.
we remain on the fiat money inflation script, just that the script twists and turns as the socio political process tries to deal with what should be left well alone
cheers, jay
From: Andrew
To: Jay
Cc: Michael
Sent: Thu, April 28, 2011 6:17:04 AM
Subject: FW: Top of silver
Andrew
From: Karl
Sent: Thursday, 28 April 2011 12:10 AM
To: Andrew; Nic
Subject: FW: Top of silver
From: Karl
Sent: Thursday, 28 April 2011 12:08 AM
To: Nathan; Jandirk
Subject: RE: Top of silver
Silver risk reversals ... calls were bid 3 over puts!!!!
-----Original Message-----
From: Nathan
Sent: Wednesday, 27 April 2011 6:37 PM
To: Karl; Jandirk
Subject: Top of silver
We must be getting close bc I just got a call from my brother in law asking about buying silver..... He usual gambling itch gets satisfied buying race horses.
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