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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (9739)	11/15/1997 2:05:00 AM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Carl,,,,Ahem,,,<speculators , cannot tell you what anything is worth> Oh yes they can,,,,at any particular moment , one look at the bid will tell a speculator what anything is worth,,,to the penny,,precisely, and unequivically,,undeniably , indoubtally,,and whatever other y's you can think of rrman

To: Bilow who wrote (9739)	11/15/1997 11:12:00 AM
From: John Dally	Respond to of 94695

Carl, thanks for another great post! John.

To: Bilow who wrote (9739)	11/15/1997 8:47:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 94695

Nice post! Re: "I decided that if the market ever got that over-valued again, I wouldn't procrastinate away the opportunity." How can you determine when the market gets as overvalued as it was in 1987? There are so many factors to consider. Inflation rates, interest rates, current and future economic growth rates, corporate accounting standards, etc. are all different now then they were in 1987. I liked your figures about the best times to buy and the cost of carrying loans to fund the purchases. Notice that the first few periods you mentioned actually had a negative cost for the loan: 4Q31-2Q33: 5.0% - 5.4% = -0.4% 1Q42-4Q42: 2.8% - 5.9% = -3.1% 2Q49-3Q50: 2.7% - 7.5% = -4.8% Back in those days, the philosophy was that stock dividend rates should be much higher than bond interest rates. The reasoning behind this is that a bond is accompanied by a "guarantee" that you will get your principal returned at the bond maturity date. On the other hand, you may or may not get your total investment amount back when you sell a stock, depending on the market price when you sell. My, how times change. Best wishes, I2