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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (37652)	4/26/2011 2:32:46 PM
From: benwood	Respond to of 71475

That would be OK, I guess... <g>

To: ggersh who wrote (37652)	4/26/2011 6:12:19 PM
From: John	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

I hope you're right, my friend! Silver is keeping my investment plan afloat right now. I'd love to see it go higher. -g- BTW, I was reviewing some interesting ^DJI data this afternoon. I created a Poisson distribution for the record set back through October of 1928 to examine the statistics for the number of consecutive up- and down-days per year. The max consecutive up-days per year was 13 and the max consecutive down-days was 12, during the period of record. It is interesting to note that for the four, five, and six consecutive down-day events, there are long-term annual probabilities of 99.94%, 97.02%, and 78.49%, respectively, that each independent streak will happen >0 times in any given year, per the Poisson distribution. However, in 2011, there has not been a streak of more than 3 consecutive down-days with nearly a third of the year gone! I noted that there is an 85.59% probability that any given year will experience four consecutive down-days at least five times. Again, so far in 2011 it has not happened even once -- zero, zilch, zip, nota! Very unusual! Also, for 2010 and 2011, even three consecutive down-days for the ^DJI is currently running far below the long-term mean. In 2010, the event happened only nine times. So far in 2011, it has occurred only three times. The long-term mean is more than 15 events per year. It's amazing to see what central bank manipulation does to "free" markets! On the flip side, there is only a 48.87% probability that any given year will experience a run of eight consecutive up-days in the ^DJI. For 2011, the event has already occurred once. Will it happen again in 2011? Well, there is only a 14.5% probability of a streak of eight consecutive up-days happening more than once in a given year. The last time it happened was in 1998, with two occurrences, but I would not be surprised if it happens again this year. -ng- Central bank manipulation is really sucking right now for those who are short U.S. equities. I've done quite well over the years in using Poisson distribution probabilities to govern the money management aspects of my investment strategies, but since late August of 2010, it has been especially challenging just to remain even. Thank goodness for silver! -g-