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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (37664)	4/26/2011 7:44:37 PM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71463

Sinking ship. $100 Silver this Summer? -ng- USA, Inc businessweek.com Skunked - Bill Gross •Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security now account for 44% of total federal spending and are steadily rising. •Previous Congresses (and Administrations) have relied on the assumption that we can grow our way out of this onerous debt burden. •Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, the U.S. will likely default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but via inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates. pimco.com zerohedge.com

To: ggersh who wrote (37664)	4/26/2011 9:32:09 PM
From: John	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71463

I went back and reanalyzed the data using semi-annual periods to compare the Jan-Jun windows to the Jul-Dec windows. One aspect that jumps out is the absence of any four consecutive down-day periods so far this year. There has never been a single period (Jan - Jun) from 1929 until 2010 without at least one such event. Not one! With barely two months left in the Jan-Jun 2011 period, the raw data suggest that there is a 100 percent chance of at least once such event during the next two months, but the Poisson distribution tempers that to a 97.77% probability. Will this be a very rare year where a four consecutive down-day event does not occur at least once in the Jan-Jun window? If so, it will be the only occurrence during the past 83 years. On the flip side, there is an 86.90% probability of at least one more four consecutive up-day event through June 30 (two such events have already occurred this year).