Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (73579)	4/28/2011 7:14:32 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217662

<<One problem with the shift of manufacturing to the interior of China is transportation costs, which are zooming up along with the price of oil>> ... the problem is being worked on. the western corporate press has been poopooing the china high-speed rail program from the get-go, mouthing off re, "what is the point of transporting peasants who cannot afford the ticket price?!" - duh ... like if the congestion of people is traveling by a stand-alone electric train system on own rails, maybe the regular tracks could be completely freed for freight ? - eh ... perhaps as the land-bridge train system across asia and to europe picks up freight, maybe the ocean trip to europe can be saved for the really big stuff ? the corporate press folks are cretins, or to 'agenda-ed' this is what i meant when i speak of china's 600-years pent-up demand for *EVERYTHING*, and the sating of which would generate whatever a continental-scale economy forward at the fastest and most amazing momentum (speed x scale) in all of human history. Transportion cost ... hydro generated electricity, enhanced by nuke reinforced electricity, first for passenger trains, then for freight trains ... would not be an issue especially as the value-add continues to increase. 35% of global gdp is the most natural and perfectly reasonable point-of-destination. in the mean time, just in in-tray per greed n fear · It will be interesting to see if the battered US dollar can manage any kind of rally following this week’s announcement of the end of QE2 at the end of June as scheduled. The omens do not look good with Ben Bernanke going out of his way to stress that the Fed is in no hurry to start shrinking its balance sheet. Rather the Fed will keep the size of the balance sheet constant by replacing maturing securities. · GREED & fear believes it will only be a matter of time before the Fed embarks on QE3 as it becomes ever clearer that releveraging is not happening and the housing market is not recovering. GREED & fear also does not believe there will be Fed tightening in 2011 or 2012. · It is right for the Fed to focus on core inflation measures on the view that rising commodity prices are deflationary because they hit American consumer’s disposable income. Still GREED & fear does not agree with quanto easing which appears to be aggravating the problem by encouraging dollar-funded speculation in commodities and other risk assets. · The key consequence of QE2 has been to re-ignite the dollar carry trade, which is why the most likely trigger of a sudden dollar rally would be some shock event, for example Middle East newsflow, precipitating a correction in risk assets. For now there is room for dollar borrowing to grow and for the dollar to weaken further. · It is true that if Washington suddenly surprised investors by getting serious about fiscal retrenchment there would be huge potential for a sharp dollar bounce. But there is a lack of expectation amongst portfolio managers in America as regards progress on the fiscal issue. · The latest data suggests money velocity may be falling again as does the money multiplier, while the US housing market continues to deteriorate. All this, if sustained, is why QE3 is coming sooner or later so long as Billyboy is in charge. Such policies can be S&P500 bullish, most particularly for US corporates with foreign revenue streams. But in GREED & fear’s view the domestic situation of the US economy remains profoundly unhealthy. · The visit by Liu Mingkang, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, to Taipei on 23 April is a reminder that investors can expect to see positive cross-Strait newsflow in the run up to next year’s Taiwan presidential election, now set to be held on 14 January. This is also a reminder of the potential excitement of the “Capital Links” story. GREED & fear also continues to advise macro investors, and those equity investors who can do currency overlays, to remain permanently long the NT dollar. · As the inevitable pressure grow for “mission creep” in the effort to remove Gaddafi, the double standards grow ever more glaring with the reported mounting death toll in Syria. Still in GREED & fear’s view Syria is far more strategically important than Libya. This is primarily because it is Iran’s main ally in the Arab world. Historic events are unfolding in the Middle East with potentially momentous consequences. Please consider the environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.