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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (5032)11/15/1997 1:18:00 PM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9124
 
Since I've become an investment journalist, I've
had a deepening of my understanding of how Wall Street
works. Especially in speaking with and dealing with
analysts and the companies. The analysts are driven
to follow the crowd, and driven to look very short
term. Even after a downgrade, a lot of these analysts
will be privately thinking "this is a great buy" but
know that the immediate appreciation might not be
spectacular. The companies are petrified of pissing
off the analysts and are paralyzed by absolutely
any bad press - especially the mid and small cap
ones. So you have sick situation that is like a shell
game in which everyone is more interested in being
everyone else's friend than doing the right thing.

With Quantum, via the SEC statements, balance sheet and my relationship to an industry executive, I am extremely
certain of the fundamentals. Back when it was up in the
mid to upper thirties, I first posted that my target
buy price was 28 (which allows certainty of getting
in with a limited 10% short-term downside). When it went
to that level on the 28th but my broker didn't execute, I
wrote on my site that I wasn't going to chase it - the
bargain value was under 28. So when Quantum came back
I was ready to load up and average down as necessary.

I really feel the individual investor has an advantage
over both the analysts and the companies themselves.
This assumes that the individual does his due diligence
in fundamental research, and that the individual is
prepared to hold until those fundamentals change.
The advantage of the individual over institutions is the
capability of waiting for just the right price combined
with the fact there is absolutely no one to answer to.

Good Investing,
Mike