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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73649)	4/29/2011 10:04:19 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218898

The silver bubble as seen via a chart: charts.kitco.com NB: The damned chart is not showing silver. Simply add symbol KSX; the chart is interactive and you should be able to see what I am talking about. Silver has underperformed gold for the historical period I was able to chart at kitco, and it seriously underperformed commencing circa 2007. It has seriously outperformed gold, however, recently. But it has more than made up lost ground, it has left Au in the dust. I would say that the rise in silver in recent history does not equal gold's performance. If there is a mean reversion to the mean [the pun was intentional, sorry, it's the lowest form of humor], silver is at a precipice. I had a bit a few weeks ago, made nice moolah quickly and got out quick as I could. My rules no. 1 and no. 2 of investing: (1) never lose capital, it's too hard to replace; incur opportunity costs if necessary and don't moan about them; (2) see rule no. 1. I disagree with Russell. NB: The damned chart is not showing silver. Simply add symbol KSX; the chart is interactive and you should be able to see what I am talking about.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73649)	4/29/2011 10:05:28 AM
From: Chas.	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218898

You know Jay...at some point Braggadcio just becomes obnoxious behavior, and very distasteful... Chas

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73649)	4/29/2011 1:35:00 PM
From: pogohere	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218898

re: silver: No Sign of the Top in Silver Silver is finally getting some attention in the 10th year of its bull market run - mostly top callers who are calling the recent move to nearly $50 an ounce a sign that it has already peaked. Interestingly, these same analysts were nowhere to be found when we made the logical argument that it would reach $50 an ounce this year. There have been many excuses in the past 10 years why investing in silver was a horrible idea, but the most recent is that it has already gone through its "parabolic" spike phase. Notice that this is always backed up with a well chosen linear chart that fits the author's linear thinking. Of course that looks scary. However, any chart with a linear growth rate will appear geometric when compounded. A true parabolic move must be measured in logarithmic notation to be properly detected. Using the above chart all we see is an asset catching up to its original trend line. Silver was already headed to $50 in 2007, but was suppressed in 2008. To compensate, the angle of the trend line increased simply because silver has had so much catching up to do. If there was a parabolic move, it was from 40 to 49, and is typical of short term tops as it became overbought on a short term basis. For anyone looking for a real parabolic move to worry about, consider the following chart (click to enlarge) of US Gross Federal Debt. from: seekingalpha.com