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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7039)	11/15/1997 10:17:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

Roger sorry but this is wrong. I have not looked at the most recent 10Q but on the previous one it was clear number one that they have received 75 million in cahs from microsoft and that the about 2 million of it was recognized as revenue in that quarter. The details are in my previous analysis. Unfortanetely is a long message and the "meat is towards the bottom. read it carefully and you will see my point. exchange2000.com Now on the new 10Q you can tell quikly how much revenue they recognized (if any I will check now!) it will show as royalties revenues from stockholder (MSFT has a 6% stake) and also this should be reflected in a liability reduction for the liability. The liability did not change you are right this quarter they did not recognize any revenue!: Current-portion of deferred revenues on contract with stockholder 15,000,000 (did not change versus June so no revenue regognized) and the long term portion: Deferred revenues on contract with stockholder 54,125,000 This means they are saving the fat cows for the bad times. As I said in a previous message this guys will have incredible leeway in meeting beating estimates a total of 69 million of revenue to pad bad quarters. By the way the will have to regognize the 15 million by june of 98. Now the income statement does show for the quarter: Net revenues attributable to a stockholder 3,750,000 I wonder who this stockholder is (no details in 10Q). As this is certainly nop MSTF's revenue! Hope this helps. Pancho

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7039)	11/15/1997 10:34:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

To All: interesting weekend reading from Barron's on actively managed mutual funds: interactive.wsj.com Sorry you need to be a subscriber to read it! as some concerned soul pointed out last week, I risk being thrown in the can if I do. (No time for summarizing need to study a few shorts this week end) Pancho

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7039)	11/15/1997 10:42:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

TO ALL: short quote from Barron's on ONSALE: Still time to short? opinions appreciated! " OnSale, the online auction company, hit the skids last week, falling about 25%, to 19 and change. Negative comments from Paul Wick, the Seligman technology fund manager, in last week's technology roundtable in Barron's contributed to the decline, but it wasn't the only factor. The slide accelerated following wireservice reports that at least four Silicon Valley teenagers had hacked into the OnSale Web site, stolen some credit-card numbers, and used the numbers to buy merchandise from OnSale. Given the paranoia over Internet security, the idea that someone is stealing credit-card numbers from an online merchant has dire implications. Fortunately, that's not what actually happened. According to a San Carlos, California, police spokesman, the kids received stolen credit-card numbers from a friend who worked in a San Francisco retail store, then hacked their way into a local Internet service provider, went to the OnSale site, and used the credit-card numbers to buy merchandise from OnSale. The point is, there was no security breach at OnSale. The company has some challenges-burgeoning competition, heavy spending to build the OnSale brand, and expectations of losing money until at least the third quarter of 1999. Teenage hacker credit-card thieves, though, aren't high on the list of things they need to worry about."