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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: studdog who wrote (9760)	11/15/1997 12:07:00 PM
From: Elllk	Respond to of 94695

Karl Great post. I am not terrifically knowledgeable about this stuff but my one comment is aren't most of those people getting laid and finding jobs also finding jobs that pay much less which certainly will compromise their interest in spending. I also have a side comment irrelevant to the economy or stockmarket. Yardeni made one of the, to me, most depressing comments I've ever heard. He was gloating about the resilience of the US economy and the US worker. He felt that the great strength of the US economy was that the US worker would pack up and go anywhere there were jobs available. No concern by Yardeni about families, extended families, and communities being torn to shreds. Larry

To: studdog who wrote (9760)	11/15/1997 12:11:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Karl, >>Becuase we and the world can be so productive, there is little chance of inflation, even with wage growth. So I think that bonds are going to come down, IMO, the risk to our bond market over the next few months is that the pacific rim countries including Japan will have to continue selling their US bonds and that will drive up interest rates. I am watching this closely, but to date it seems like the "fight to quality" has been greater than the selling. Joan

To: studdog who wrote (9760)	11/15/1997 12:55:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

Karl, I responded in the other tread so this is a repeat: Karl, all is fine with your model, but my expectations are 15% to 30% lower profits for next year!! Therefore at present time the market will find balance around SPY 750 if not lower as pessimism will grow. US market valuation is above the US GDP. Think about how a prolonged/substantial market erosion will influence the GDP. Retail sales are already slowing, - resulting in lower profit for the retail sector! Car sales are down - lower profit for GM, F, C and their host of suppliers. Happy trading Haim

To: studdog who wrote (9760)	11/15/1997 12:59:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Karl, I see your shift on outlook from "15%" to "meltdown" to now back to the "maybe not so bad" case as more or less the market "mood of the day". Why, though, take it on your shoulders to predict the near- intermediate- and long-term? Buy something you can be comfortable with under any scenario and forget the gambling/guessing game. Greg

To: studdog who wrote (9760)	11/15/1997 4:36:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Karl, That was a beautifully written post. It was well thought through. Thank you. I can easily identify with your change of market sentiment. I was bearish for about six months. I've become bullish a couple of weeks ago. The market simply has not done anything but correct. The bull appears to be well intact, and there is enough negative sentiment and angst about the market's 'vulnerability' to drive this market still higher. When the DOW dropped 550 points, I posted here that I'll be buying the next morning and I did. I bought big. I don't know the first thing about how the external forces, the fundamentals, might actually impact these markets, but I do believe the DOW is moving higher from these levels. I base this assessment on my historically reliable technical indicators. I believe enough in my market judgement to post my positions on this thread. Now, I have a simple question for you. How do you calculate the earnings estimates for the SP500 as you referenced in your post? Is there a site that lists that? Have a great weekend. GZ

To: studdog who wrote (9760)	11/15/1997 5:23:00 PM
From: Paxb2u	Respond to of 94695

Karl, Great post and thanks. I, personally think we are headed into a period of deflation. This of course means lower revenues and perhaps lower profits. (Depending on how much of a new era we are in concerning productivity.) But I don't believe anyone knows how much deflation will impact our economy. We probably will begin to get some clues this week when the Japenese banks begin to disclose some data. However, these things won't begin to show up in US industry reporting, and then ripple through our industries, until in the spring or summer of the coming year. I believe we could rally from here (with the exception of Iraq interference) and next year begin a possible slow downturn in the business cycle. But then, I've been wrong a lot. Have a good weekend, Peter :o)