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Non-Tech : Amati investors -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andreas Helke who wrote (28710)	11/15/1997 5:07:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31386

[IBD and Comdex] Andreas -- Today's (actually, Monday's) IBD is filled with articles on Comdex, including a preview of John Chambers's talk on Tuesday. It's particularly noteworthy that this is the first time in the history of the show that a networker has been asked to give a keynote. (9:00 a.m., Tuesday) Cisco has big plans for the access market and when Chambers speaks of targetting the ISPs, I'm guessing that includes CLECs. I don't know exactly what they'll bring out, but I have sources on both coasts telling me they haven't been sitting on their corporate duffs the past 18 months. I've been an outspoken proponent of the highspeed bandwidth sector and of Amati as one of the leaders. I don't apologize on either score. The cast is shifting every day. If ADSL proliferates, and I believe it will, then Amati will play a pivotal role. How, I still don't know. I only know the galleys haven't been set and anyone who assumes they have is either asleep or a fool. Besides the interview with Chambers (included below), here are several quotes from a different article, "Comdex Show to Boogie to the Beat of the Web," that highlight the presence of the networkers at this year's show: <<<<Convention floor activities and parties will flow with an undercurrent of the Internet's coming of age in the form of electronic commerce. "It's affecting everything --- telecommunications, hardware, software applications," said Erina DuBois, an analyst at market research firm Dataquest Inc. in San Jose, CA. . . . Most of the show's activity centers on electronic commerce and taking advantage of it, Sell [Softbank's director] says. "If companies aren't hawking ways to sell goods on the Internet, then they are trying to sell hardware that offers better access to the Web." . . . Roughly 1,000 of the 2,300 companies exhibiting at Comdex are there for network-related reasons. . . . Hardware vendors are likely to gear their displays around network computing. . . high-speed modems, more functiional notebook computers and network computers will be prominent. . . .>>> The Chambers interview: <<< Soon, it won't be any big deal for voice, video and data to zip through a single networking line. So says Cisco Systems Inc. Cisco CEO John Chambers plans to discuss how networking advances will alter businesses and homes in his keynote address 9 a.m. tomorrow at Comdex/Fall '97. He'll be the first networking executive to give a keynote at the largest computer trade show in the U.S. As the networking industry's largest player, San Jose, Calif.-based Cisco's words have clout. Chambers recently spoke with IBD about the upcoming wave of voice-video-data products and Cisco's place in that market. IBD: How has the networking industry changed in the past few months? Chambers: The average person's awareness (of networking) has increased dramatically. I'm talking more and more often not only with key technicians, but with executive vice presidents or chief executive officers. We're talking about how networking is changing the way people live, play, work and learn. We compare (networking) to the industrial revolution of 100 years ago. The Internet revolution will have every bit as much effect on society, companies' success or lack of success, and even countries' success . . . except it's not going to occur over two or three decades. It's going to occur in one. I think now you're beginning to see the average business person understand what this really means to them. IBD: What technological change will next spur the industry? Chambers: I think the one that's spurring the industry right now is an end-to-end solution from one vendor and its partners. (End-to-end) allows you to implement technology at a much faster pace and with a much lower cost of ownership than if you had to piece together a whole bunch of technologies from different vendors. The second thing that I think is going to spur the industry is data-voice-video integration and the applications and cost efficiencies that go with that. IBD: When will voice-video-data networking take off? Chambers: It's already happening. It happens differently depending on the company, the applications, the industry (and the) geography. In Europe, combining voice, video, data comes from a cost-efficiency point of view, because there the LAN (local-area network) network is very expensive. In the U.S., where the lines aren't quite as expensive, that's an element, but multimedia applications are a key driver. I was in one of the more conservative sections of the U.S. - Atlanta - and I asked the 105 customers at a breakfast meeting how many of them were planning on combining their data, voice and video networks over the next three years. Over 90% raised their hand. That's a huge change. A year ago you might have gotten 10% to 15%. IBD: How long has Cisco worked at integrating these technologies? Chambers: We've been focused on this for two years. We now have 15 to 20 data-voice-video products under development. We made it a top priority this calendar year. IBD: How about smaller businesses? Chambers: We continue to make good progress in small to medium-sized business. However, I'm not where I want to be - by a long way. Our competitors candidly do a much better job in the channel than we traditionally have. Our routers and midlevel switches are doing well. We have some work to do in low- end switches. We made price-performance improvements. You'll see new products out next quarter that will address even more the low-end part of the LAN switch market. IBD: Have sales to Internet service providers increased? Chambers: We're focusing more on the ISP market. This is the first quarter (the second fiscal quarter ended Oct. 25) where we saw double-digit growth in the service provider marketplace. >>>> I'll be at the show from Sunday to Tuesday, so if anyone's going to be there and wants to meet, whip me an email before mid-morning tomorrow. Cheers! Pat

To: Andreas Helke who wrote (28710)	11/16/1997 2:33:00 AM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 31386

<If a network backbone is overloaded you have massive packet losses (Ping is showing 30 to 70% of packets lost).> As you know (and as I previously stated), packet loss occurs when a router's waiting loop times out, and the packet is NOT re-transmitted. TCP does the best it can. <Under these conditions the typical time until a Web server answers is a delay of 5 to 60 seconds.> Again, it is the router which times out messages, creating the occasional PL when a packet is dropped. <Since these conditions lead to absolutely unbearable network respone times every responsible backbone provider makes shure that he has enough spare capacity and that the backbone capacity grows at least at fast as network traffic does.> This would be nice if it occured with ANY kind of consistency <And they hope that the network equipment manufacturers have the faster routers ready when they are needed.> Someday. We are certainly now AWARE of the growing backbone problems even WITHOUT bandwidth applications, and various solution approaches are beginning to come online. Steve