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Biotech / Medical : Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John McCarthy who wrote (185)	11/15/1997 3:22:00 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 569

Short Attack This note is to heighten everyones awareness to the possibility of a SHORT ATTACK on BIOX. Yes - it is always bad to cry "WOLF" and frighten folks, when in fact, there is no "WOLF"; but sometimes, it is better to practice THE DRILL in case the attack comes - --------------------------------------- The current short #'s are: --------------------------------------- Oct - 265,000 Sept - 166,000 Aug - 46,000 July - 75,000 June - 75,000 You can track these numbers at this site: viwes.com --------------------------------------- TA Summary --------------------------------------- I won't defend the following, but I think at this "point of time" of BIOXs' price cycle, the following SUPPORT LEVELS have been established. --------------------------------------- Price Support Levels --------------------------------------- 36.00 - 35.00 33.00 - 32.00 28.50 --------------------------------------- The Hope --------------------------------------- Some folks (not on this thread) are honestly hoping that BIOX falls thru $32.00 a share because the next support price level is around the $28.50 vicinity. What adds to the shorts arsenal is the market in general e.g. problems in Asia. Stated another way,if the market falls below 7,400 most stocks will go down. --------------------------------------- What you can do --------------------------------------- Most importantly, make sure that you can ABSORB an attack to the $28.00 level. --------------------------------------- The Comeback --------------------------------------- Then - note and get ready for the following: (1) Mgmt. owns 30% of this company. i.e. those shares are tied up (2) There are only 11+ million shares out there. (3) BIOX's 4th qtr. will (a) exceed expectations - there are none (b) put it on EVERYONE'S RADAR SCREENS. i.e. the money managers As for the 4th qtr. - its a done deal .... + Synvisc Sell-In to AHP + $1,000,000 license payment to BIOX from AHP (If you like to read numbers, please see my recent post about 4th qtr E.P.S - and adjust to your own thoughts) (4) After 4th qtr earnings come out - I say, no less than 3 brokerage houses will begin to comment on the stock and give their estimate for 1998 e.p.s. (5) Look at Friday - volume was VERY LOW. To me this is a VERY, VERY BULLISH SIGNAL. i.e. NOBODY IS LEAVING THE TABLE The 200,000 shares shorted since August have got to be feeling just a little sicky in their stomach. And I say this ... just based on Friday's volume. (6) Hylaform probably gets approved by 12/31. Let's say December 20th .... (7) Collagen will pay a fee for USA Hylaform. Pick a number? $4.0 mil. $5.0 mil. higher? (8) BIOX's management actions. If BIOX management buys just 200,000 shares at say 32.00 - there is NOTHING LEFT FOR THE SHORTS TO COVER WITH. Why? There will be no meaningful volume left. Whoever the next buyer is they pay dearly. Whether investor or short coverer. Remember:BIOX is sitting on $20.0 mil. in cash RIGHT NOW. (9) Any short attack would have to end once 4th qtr. earnings are announced. -Or- If BIOX mgt. pre-announced 4th Qtr. Revenues as an FYI. (which some companies do). --------------------------------------- Apologies in Advance --------------------------------------- Well, that's my 2 cents. I hope I have not offended anyone. Quite the opposite, I hope this has helped. So that you understand my headset, there are a bunch of nice folks on the CYMI thread. Even now, after the event, they are still SHELL-SHOCKED from the SHORT ATTACK that hit CYMI. Let's not get blind-sided. We're smarter than that. Regards, John

To: John McCarthy who wrote (185)	11/16/1997 3:12:00 PM
From: AARON DIDICH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 569

John: No boundaries to cross with your questions, but see my previous note to Jim for other details. Answer to your question is basically there is no answer yet. That was the first patient and it will be what, 6 monthes before we get a feel of this modality. I will continue to post what I hear and see from my not too slanted O.R. vantage point. I am also on close terms with an implant rep to hear what is being said from his HQ about the new kid on the block. Thanks for your input and previous posts. Aaron