To: Zebra 365 who wrote (6068 ) 11/16/1997 12:08:00 AM From: Clayleas Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31646
Let me add to this discussion on the TPRO numbers with a transcript of pertinent sections from the conference call.John Jenkins: "I have a piece of paper in front of me here that is our attempt to track a Y2K pipeline. It changes daily. The one I'm looking at has 41 accounts on it with a total plant coverage embedded in those accounts of over 3500. An interesting piece here, again cycling back to the base business is that 80% of these accounts are new to the company period, end of argument. 100% of these accounts or 100% of the selling level in these accounts is new to us. We may have done work in a facility for someone like Bristol Meyers on a single facility basis, but historically in the base business, we've never had access to multi-plant decision making levels in the organization. And certainly, our model downstream as we expect to hold onto that access and live in these accounts after year 2000." By the way, Jenkins said that the 3500 number he quoted here is an update on the 3000 figure shown in the press release. Things are moving fast Later in the Q&A:Q: "What do you see in revenue for the future on your CD?" John Jenkins: "Well, the opportunity (let me roll it out that way for the moment), first of all when we sell tools, its a combination of the CD, which is sort of the key to the compliance data base - so there's our pricing model there (and if I'm being redundant for some of you, I appologize) - but its basically $4000 for the CD. That includes the methodology and several support tools. Then to switch on and have access to the vendor compliance data base, your talking about $5000 per site. The CD price is per seat. So in a straight forward model, you've got somebody who buys 1 CD. He pays 4000 for that, he's going to pay 5 for the vendor compliance data base access, and he's going to pay $200 per vendor compliance report. Most organizations that we're looking at on the small end of the quote average range would have at least 100 unique devices in their facility. So its 100 x $200 = $20,000. He buys some training along the way. You can get to a model that says between $30,000 and $35,000 on an average basis per individual facility. The total facility count out there is, on a conservative basis, between 70,000 and 100,000 facilities that have to address this problem. So its a very large number at the high end. We won't reach all those facilities and not everybody's going to pay retail price. When you sit at the table with somebody that's got 600 sites to address, there's a fair amount of negotiating pressure from his side of the table. But I think we've used a conservative number of about $20,000 per site for a straight up tool purchase by a client. I still think that number works and I have no reason to push it one way or the other at this point. The mix of tools and services is hard for us to pin down today. We've got a wide range. Some organizations have absolutely no engineering staff and they want to buy services wrapped around tools. Others have solid engineering staffs and are really looking at tools and projects. OK, so potential for tools alone for what's in the pipeline is $20,000 x 3500 = $70MM!!! And what did they say about timing of expenditures they are seeing right now?John Jenkins: "There's a lot of money being thrown at pilot and early assessment activities so that people can really scope out their full expenditure requirements for 1998." WOW!!!!! Quite frankly, this is too good to be true, even if they can get only a fraction of what was stated to be in the pipeline. I will try to get a clarification on this on Monday. Jim