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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73989)	5/6/2011 1:10:42 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218655

I remember seeing this when it was originally written up at zerohedge a couple of weeks ago. As I am not in silver, I didn't give it too much thought. zerohedge.com Turns out the trade was a five bagger, in two weeks. zerohedge.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73989)	5/7/2011 5:20:42 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218655

"any wagers on when qe3?" Deflation fears in commodities lend credence to QE3 coming by the Fed massive drops recently in gold, silver, hogs, and even corn since Sunday night, the rising fear of deflation in many commodities is lending more credence to a QE3 type program being instituted by the Fed after QE2 finishes in June. The biggest fear by the Federal Reserve is deflation, as it would force interest rates up on government debt and treasury purchases, and make rotating existing debt too expensive to undertake. The flip side of the argument is that the continuance of their current monetary policy and the expansion of the money supply is causing the dollar to drop and enter crisis territory. Unfortunately, the recent manipulation by the regulators to control commodities using raised margin requirements is causing many to dump their positions, and head for the doors, which is facilitating the escalating fall in commoditiy prices. And so the overly expected "deflationary" wave takes hold, just in time for silver to take out the $40 support. Next up: everyone runs to the exits over fears that despite nothing having changed, deflation is gripping the land, which, of course, is precisely what the uberprinter needs in order to get QE3 approval. In the meantime, weak hands should certainly hit those bids. While that is happening, we eagerly await to see to what record low Comex registered silver drops today, not to mention seeing InTrade odds on whether QE3 will come in August or November... - Zerohedge For holders of physical commodities, as well as those with long term positions in the metals, oil, and food futures, the importance here is to be patient, and ride the temporary spike down. Great investors such as Warren Buffett made their fortunes by being contrary to the markets, and this is a very accurate axiom with the recent slide in precious metals. The fundamentals on the dollar and on silver and gold have not changed, only the regulatory landscape has, and was instituted to protect the major banks who are currently shorting both gold and silver. The Federal Reserve needs to find a way to justify a QE3 program, and temporary deflation in commodities is the perfect avenue to use. With most traders worried that commodities are a bubble, not a result of prices due to a falling dollar, the ability to collapse those commodities in the short term was fairly easy to accomplish by the banks and regulators, but in the end the Fed's direction is still on course to hyperinflate or die. Continue reading on Examiner.com: Deflation fears in commodities lend credence to QE3 coming by the Fed - National Finance Examiner \| Examiner.com examiner.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (73989)	5/7/2011 7:19:50 PM
From: 2MAR$	1 Recommendation Respond to of 218655

What an odyssey that Armstrong economist fellow went thru ...spent 7years inside for contempt , sounded like hell, what an ordeal <G Well , that excess speculation got wrung out quickly in just 3 days especially $Silver which offered a beauty of a trade opp (AGQ/SLV) friday am for the very healthy "cat bounce" . Hope you got in that trade early for the tech bounce, paid very well one for a 2hr morning work day ;O) ...as for efficient markets, that was a pretty efficient 3 day drop. Nothing to do near term bit take the traed opps & profit , unfortunately thats what we mostly do . Besides the metals healthy correcting ... ( now for the "debt ceiling" debates!) Focus has been on the Oil Servives /OIH (and the oil/refiner group ) for instance went contrarian trading into RIG other morning on terrible earnings numbers but $66.50 seemed to cheap & caught that technical bounce back up to $70 , but its still very weak . All thru April have been shorting all the double top highs which were all displaying within pennies of each other if you check charts for XOM CVX MRO all got sold back down after blow out numbers . Gas prices rising almost $1/gal & consumption dropping 4 consecutive months in a row . The Libya thing was noise , oil was bidding up on pure greed speculation by the big Bank traders in the face of this econ "recovery" how can they expect the consumer to hold up when the average spending on gas alone has risen to $300-$400/mo ? Thats the monthly payment for a new car <G Now Goldman upping Oils even with expected weakness near term reversing its call from early April : Goldman Sachs, which in April predicted this week's major correction in oil prices, said on Friday that oil could surpass its recent highs by 2012 as global oil supplies continue to tighten. in.reuters.com So will continue to watch closely what they do with the XLE /OIH (perfect double tops )from here as almost all these have pulled back to lower support just under the 50ma . Oil/Energy going to give hints about this job-Bless "recovery thesis" now that the trades have been wrung out of excess speculation . monitoring the Big Oils & services here pulling back to lower pivot support just under the 50ma RIG HAL NOV DO NE SLB HES ESV FWLT HP RDC BHI etc