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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (42592)	5/11/2011 12:41:24 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

EBIX - I don't hold a position anymore, but I wouldn't be so positive. Revenue is increasing at about 22%, while earnings are flat if you annualize Q1 vs 2010. Their S&M and G&A are going up - both mentioned as low in the short report. There's 1.5M currency exchange gain, which is not something to expect every quarter. Income taxes are rising - another point of the short report. ROE dropped to 18%. OCF is still 50% lower than earnings! It's still a marginal buy if you expect that their results will continue in a similar vein. It's not a buy if the short predictions will come to roost. So far they have been somewhat correct. ;) Personally, I would look for $15'ish to reenter the position. Otherwise, IMHO the risk is too high.

To: Shane M who wrote (42592)	5/11/2011 10:52:28 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78462

MSFT - I own a large position. Buy AAPL - too expensive, I wouldn't buy above $300 EBIX - we discussed already, no buy for me MED - too expensive MDF - I wouldn't touch Medicare stuff. DST - I own a small position, the stock is cheap, but IMHO their results suck DO - I own a small position, I am not that excited about deepwater drillers since last year. IMHO the buildout continues and we gonna hit overcapacity again in 2-3 years. LHCG - Medicare ditto CHL - I own a position and IMHO it's a buy. TEO - buy ARO - I have a position, probably a wait now USNA - I don't invest in MLMs Have you done in depth dd on TEO? I wonder what are the warts not counting peso devaluation and possible government intervention on how to run the business not for shareholders.

To: Shane M who wrote (42592)	5/12/2011 3:00:23 AM
From: Paul Senior	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78462

Looks to me like some decent stocks on your list, Shane. Imo, medicare isn't going away,and if changes are made to government assistance to elderly & poor, these companies will adapt and still be around and do okay. I don't like the insider sales at LHCG, but the stock has had reasonably good roe, increasing stated bv, and a p/e at about 11. I'll put it on my watch list. Also MDF and DST. Guessing that if so many of my small cap Chinese companies have problems with one or more of poor accounting, poor governance, hidden ownership or hidden deals, little regard for outside or foreign stockholders, then that may also be true for the larger Chinese companies. I recent sold CHL for that reason.