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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mike iles who wrote (24162)	11/16/1997 3:14:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

>>Even though Niles has shaved his estimate for this quarter to .14 from .39, he still rates MU a BUY. Memory prices are supposed to stop going down so fast and EPS will ramp from .14 to .22, .31, .43 over the balance of the year.<< let's analyze this a little. mu's asp is going to be about $4.80 or so this q. this translates into $0.14. dram is currently at $3.46. eps are going to go UP 50% with dram beginning the q at $3.46 instead of over $5.00 like last q. does this guy think were stupid? he's essentially betting that 16 mb chips go up 80% next q and that companies will pay a premium for 16 mb memory over 64 mb memory. please pass the magic mushrooms, dan "i think i'll upgrade mu at $47" niles. what a dope. btw, 16 mb dram CAN'T TURN AROUND AT THIS POINT. at least not significantly. why? 95% 64 mb crossover will occur the minute that 16 mb chips cost more per megabit. then demand for mu's products tank to big time. 64 mb is not being dumped and mu has no ability to get the doj involved in 64 mb. anyway, i have nearly a triple and am thinking of playing a bounce. maybe peter is on to something. however, there seems to be a seller (fido?) that consistently and methodically is sellling this bow wow every single day. will they stop now? maybe not. each dollar down increases my reg account gains 10% for the year. my net gain right now is 20%. if my current puts expire worthless (mu => $25 at dec expir) then i'm even for the year. i don't think so...