To: Rick Seavey who wrote (432 ) 11/16/1997 11:14:00 AM From: Richnorth Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1030
You wrote:If gold were at $400 per ounce, I could agree with your $12 share price and even say that that was conservative. Think of what that would mean to GMD. First, it would mean a profit of $150 US per ounce rather than the barely break even amount of 40-50 currently. It should also be mentioned that taxes and interest would have to be deducted from that amount. But a $150 per ounce profit would mean that GMD could speed up their gold and diamond explorations perhaps transferring potential to reality. My C$12/share price was a back-of-an-envelope type of calculation--a very rough guesstimate done when gold was at U.S.$320/oz , or ~C$442/oz. The number of ounces of gold and the shares (fully diluted) considered were 3 million and 20 million, respectively, and I reduced the asset value by 80%. By contrast, you assumed that gold has to be at U.S.$400/oz for GMD to be valued at C$12/ share. If gold were at U.S.$400/oz , then my calculation would give a valuation of C$16.8/sh. Furthermore, GMD plans to extract about 137,000 oz. gold annually, not 50,000 oz. by your estimate. May be you are right but on the other hand GMD might be able to extract more than 137,000 oz. gold annually. That certainly would change the bottom line significantly, wouldn't it? It seems your estimates tend to be rather conservative. I guess at this stage of the game, it is better to be conservative and indulge in sobering thoughts than err on the side of undue optimism. But of course, there is no gainsaying that the bottom line ultimately depends on the price of gold and the perception of investors. I understand that GMD has, to date, explored only about 20% of its properties. Whether the rest of the unexplored properties would eventually yield anything to enhance the potential of GMD remains to be seen. But ah! hope ever springs eternal........! It looks like investing in GMD for the long haul is the way to go, eh? And GMD should strive to reduce costs of operations as much as possible! Just like what so many major players are striving to do!