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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2481)	11/15/1997 11:52:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 78626

I am an older and bigger dollar investor who is very experienced, with highly developed analytical and risk evaluation skills (due to my career).. I find that only a small percentage of my "mistakes" are due to getting blindsided and that most are due to minding too many stores without full attention. And I can do this full time, use modern EDP resources, and often have access to mgmt. I stick with what I said in my prior post. I am trying to reduce the number of positions and control the risk by spreading around unrelated industries and companies. If I were not OK with the potential loss from a single investment in a fewer stock portfolio, I would add index funds, fixed income, increase cash, or select larger, more stable companies - rather than double the number of individual stock holdings..

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2481)	11/16/1997 12:26:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78626

Re: Portfolio Management, WDC/QNTM, APM <<If a person maintains 8-10 stocks but has turnover of 100% what does that mean?>> With such a concentration at the heights of a raging, volatile and possibly crumbling bull, turnover doesn't mean much to me. If the reason is that stocks are being knocked down 30-70% all around him/her, then it is logical. Now, if a person is selling solely because a stock is falling, then that is an indication of trading, churning, and lack of conviction as a result of lack of due diligence in the first place. Personally, when I sell to make moves into other stocks, I sell the stocks that haven't moved either up or down. My hope is that, systematically, I will be leaving stocks that are on avg inherently less volatile and with little market correlation. In this way, I am maximizing my chances of returning at the same value price at a point in the future when that stock becomes the best relative value. If one of my stocks falls, like MUEI, TBR, QNTM, and HYDEA all did recently, I average down by selling one of the "quiet" stocks. After all, a good value just got better and I want to take advantage. Turnover can be high, but I see reason in this. Re: WDC/QNTM; I took my off WDC for a bit and then I see it at 19. Good price. If I had a diversified portfolio I would probably have bought it. Having looked into it pretty extensively, and owing to my diversify-across-sectors strategy, I only need one dd. Quantum at 25-27 fits the bill as the single best idea, but WDC at 19 or SEG at 21 are both definitely good ideas. Re: APM, from what I understand, the current balance sheet and cash flows and all are threatened with extinction due to a paradigm shift within the industry that's moving manufacturers away from APM. There is huge speculation whether APM's management can pull it off. If not, there is question whether APM can survive. Paul, could you describe why an investment in APM is not speculation? Not being critical; just want to learn more since it looks so good numbers-wise and I do not understand the situation perfectly. Good Investing, Mike

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2481)	11/16/1997 12:03:00 PM
From: Wink	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78626

Paul, I can agree with your post 2481. I am a small investor with 8-10 stocks that makes up 70% of my portfolio, the rest is in indexed mutual funds. This limits me to about 8% in any one stock. I feel that this limits my risk at a time when I need to conserve my limited capital. Once I have built up my holdings to the larger status (over 1/4M) I will probably move more to mutuals. Currently I am in highly speculative issues trying to make something happen. But I also like to short term trade with 3-4 issues with a target of 15% profit, after commissions. I have been failrly successfull while holding these issues for only 60-90 days, implying a much larger annual profit. While the volitility of my portfolio swings 8-20% a month, I am 25 years from retirement and don't worry about these monthly swings. Annaulized I am still doing something right by making 15-17% a year. Less than an index fund but i am learning as I go, and should improve over time! I am also learning about many industries and how they cycle. Currently I am in technology, biotechs, oil& gas, software, new technologies, mining, medical, and entertainment areas. I see no reason that I can't follow this many areas. Also note that while the market lost 5% in October, my portfolio went up 8%!